Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment
Assessing the impacts of both climate and land use changes on hydrologic variables is crucial for sustainable development of water resources and natural ecosystems. We conducted a case study of a catchment in southwestern Australia to assess the impacts of future climate and land use changes, both s...
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/9/1428 |
| _version_ | 1797491316961050624 |
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| author | Hong Zhang Bin Wang De Li Liu Lance M. Leslie Lijie Shi Mingxi Zhang Qiang Yu |
| author_facet | Hong Zhang Bin Wang De Li Liu Lance M. Leslie Lijie Shi Mingxi Zhang Qiang Yu |
| author_sort | Hong Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Assessing the impacts of both climate and land use changes on hydrologic variables is crucial for sustainable development of water resources and natural ecosystems. We conducted a case study of a catchment in southwestern Australia to assess the impacts of future climate and land use changes, both separately and in combination, on water resource availability. For this evaluation, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was first calibrated and then forced by 34 global climate models (GCMs), under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and five land use scenarios (LU0–4). Our results suggested that SWAT reproduced the observed monthly streamflow well. Land use changes have impacts on all hydrologic variables, especially on runoff at the annual scale. Future runoff was projected to decrease in all seasons, especially winter and spring. For the combined effects of climate and land use changes, the results of LU1–4 were only slightly different from the response of LU0. An uncertainty analysis shows that GCMs had the greatest contribution to hydrologic variables, followed by RCPs and land use scenarios. Hence, it is advisable for impacts analysis to use an ensemble of GCMs under different RCPs to minimize the uncertainty of projected future hydrologic variables. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:45:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ddb259317254773ba8f9b73f935159d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:45:45Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ddb259317254773ba8f9b73f935159d2023-11-23T14:59:28ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-09-01139142810.3390/atmos13091428Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian CatchmentHong Zhang0Bin Wang1De Li Liu2Lance M. Leslie3Lijie Shi4Mingxi Zhang5Qiang Yu6School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2007, AustraliaNSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, AustraliaNSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, AustraliaSchool of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2007, AustraliaCollege of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, ChinaSoil and Landscape Science, School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6845, AustraliaState Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, ChinaAssessing the impacts of both climate and land use changes on hydrologic variables is crucial for sustainable development of water resources and natural ecosystems. We conducted a case study of a catchment in southwestern Australia to assess the impacts of future climate and land use changes, both separately and in combination, on water resource availability. For this evaluation, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was first calibrated and then forced by 34 global climate models (GCMs), under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and five land use scenarios (LU0–4). Our results suggested that SWAT reproduced the observed monthly streamflow well. Land use changes have impacts on all hydrologic variables, especially on runoff at the annual scale. Future runoff was projected to decrease in all seasons, especially winter and spring. For the combined effects of climate and land use changes, the results of LU1–4 were only slightly different from the response of LU0. An uncertainty analysis shows that GCMs had the greatest contribution to hydrologic variables, followed by RCPs and land use scenarios. Hence, it is advisable for impacts analysis to use an ensemble of GCMs under different RCPs to minimize the uncertainty of projected future hydrologic variables.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/9/1428climate changeland use changeGCMsouthwestern Australiarunoff |
| spellingShingle | Hong Zhang Bin Wang De Li Liu Lance M. Leslie Lijie Shi Mingxi Zhang Qiang Yu Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment Atmosphere climate change land use change GCM southwestern Australia runoff |
| title | Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment |
| title_full | Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment |
| title_fullStr | Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment |
| title_short | Individual and Coupled Effects of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water Balance Components in an Australian Catchment |
| title_sort | individual and coupled effects of future climate and land use scenarios on water balance components in an australian catchment |
| topic | climate change land use change GCM southwestern Australia runoff |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/9/1428 |
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