Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort
The Framingham Risk Score to predict 30-year risk (FRS30y) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes an important tool for long-term risk prediction. However, due to its complex statistical properties and the paucity of large population-based cohorts with appropriate data, validation of the FRS30y...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Diagnostics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4418/12/4/965 |
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| author | Susanne Rospleszcz Fabian Starnecker Birgit Linkohr Moritz von Scheidt Christian Gieger Heribert Schunkert Annette Peters |
| author_facet | Susanne Rospleszcz Fabian Starnecker Birgit Linkohr Moritz von Scheidt Christian Gieger Heribert Schunkert Annette Peters |
| author_sort | Susanne Rospleszcz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Framingham Risk Score to predict 30-year risk (FRS30y) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes an important tool for long-term risk prediction. However, due to its complex statistical properties and the paucity of large population-based cohorts with appropriate data, validation of the FRS30y is lacking. A population-based cohort from Southern Germany (N = 3110, 1516 (48.7%) women) was followed up for a median time of 29.5 [18.7, 31.2] years. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for the original, recalibrated and refitted FRS30y version. During follow up, 620 incident CVD events (214 in women) occurred. The FRS30y showed adequate discrimination (original and recalibrated version: Area under the curve (AUC): 78.4 for women and 74.9 for men) but overestimated actual CVD risk (original version: discordance 45.4% for women and 37.3% for men, recalibrated version: 37.6% and 28.6%, respectively). Refitting showed substantial improvement in neither discrimination nor calibration. The performance of FRS30y is adequate for long-term CVD risk prediction and could serve as an important tool in risk communication, especially for younger audiences. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:56:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ddbcf23d5584ee0a5dd9f5e85912687 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-4418 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:56:54Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diagnostics |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ddbcf23d5584ee0a5dd9f5e859126872023-12-01T01:34:35ZengMDPI AGDiagnostics2075-44182022-04-0112496510.3390/diagnostics12040965Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based CohortSusanne Rospleszcz0Fabian Starnecker1Birgit Linkohr2Moritz von Scheidt3Christian Gieger4Heribert Schunkert5Annette Peters6Department of Epidemiology, Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80539 Munich, GermanyGerman Center for Cardiovascular Disease (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, 80636 Munich, GermanyInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, 85764 Neuherberg, GermanyGerman Center for Cardiovascular Disease (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, 80636 Munich, GermanyInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, 85764 Neuherberg, GermanyGerman Center for Cardiovascular Disease (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, 80636 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Epidemiology, Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80539 Munich, GermanyThe Framingham Risk Score to predict 30-year risk (FRS30y) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes an important tool for long-term risk prediction. However, due to its complex statistical properties and the paucity of large population-based cohorts with appropriate data, validation of the FRS30y is lacking. A population-based cohort from Southern Germany (N = 3110, 1516 (48.7%) women) was followed up for a median time of 29.5 [18.7, 31.2] years. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for the original, recalibrated and refitted FRS30y version. During follow up, 620 incident CVD events (214 in women) occurred. The FRS30y showed adequate discrimination (original and recalibrated version: Area under the curve (AUC): 78.4 for women and 74.9 for men) but overestimated actual CVD risk (original version: discordance 45.4% for women and 37.3% for men, recalibrated version: 37.6% and 28.6%, respectively). Refitting showed substantial improvement in neither discrimination nor calibration. The performance of FRS30y is adequate for long-term CVD risk prediction and could serve as an important tool in risk communication, especially for younger audiences.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4418/12/4/965risk predictionrisk factorscardiovascular diseasecohort studycalibration |
| spellingShingle | Susanne Rospleszcz Fabian Starnecker Birgit Linkohr Moritz von Scheidt Christian Gieger Heribert Schunkert Annette Peters Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort Diagnostics risk prediction risk factors cardiovascular disease cohort study calibration |
| title | Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort |
| title_full | Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort |
| title_fullStr | Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort |
| title_full_unstemmed | Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort |
| title_short | Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort |
| title_sort | validation of the 30 year framingham risk score in a german population based cohort |
| topic | risk prediction risk factors cardiovascular disease cohort study calibration |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4418/12/4/965 |
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