Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe
The area of forests and the standing volume per hectare are constantly increasing in Europe, and this trend is expected to continue for several more decades; the aim of this paper was to provide an empirical overview of the development of disturbances in selected countries of central Europe and base...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/4/554 |
| _version_ | 1797434672961028096 |
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| author | Miloš Gejdoš Katarína Michajlová |
| author_facet | Miloš Gejdoš Katarína Michajlová |
| author_sort | Miloš Gejdoš |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The area of forests and the standing volume per hectare are constantly increasing in Europe, and this trend is expected to continue for several more decades; the aim of this paper was to provide an empirical overview of the development of disturbances in selected countries of central Europe and based on this overview to empirically model and predict the development and intensity of disturbances in the future. Statistical methods (Holt–Winters) and predictive risk models of the growth simulator SIBYLA were used for prediction. From the statistically predicted values by this method, it follows that, in the next three years, it is possible to assume that stagnation will result in declining volumes of incidental fellings in all countries. Forecast from the growth simulator SIBYLA shows a substantial increase in the predicted volume of incidental fellings for the years 2021 and 2022, compared with 2020. The volumes of incidental fellings should grow most significantly, especially in Germany, Poland, and Austria. The performed analysis and predictions suggest that the peak of wood volumes damaged by disturbances in the next decade will probably be reached already in the reports for 2021 or 2022. However, the risk of disturbances remains high, and other large-scale area disturbances in forest ecosystems cannot be completely ruled out. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:35:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0e847ac6598a4c59870ccdce02df1696 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:35:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-0e847ac6598a4c59870ccdce02df16962023-12-01T20:54:34ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072022-03-0113455410.3390/f13040554Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central EuropeMiloš Gejdoš0Katarína Michajlová1Department of Forest Harvesting, Logistics and Ameliorations, Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, 960 01 Zvolen, SlovakiaDepartment of Forest Harvesting, Logistics and Ameliorations, Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, 960 01 Zvolen, SlovakiaThe area of forests and the standing volume per hectare are constantly increasing in Europe, and this trend is expected to continue for several more decades; the aim of this paper was to provide an empirical overview of the development of disturbances in selected countries of central Europe and based on this overview to empirically model and predict the development and intensity of disturbances in the future. Statistical methods (Holt–Winters) and predictive risk models of the growth simulator SIBYLA were used for prediction. From the statistically predicted values by this method, it follows that, in the next three years, it is possible to assume that stagnation will result in declining volumes of incidental fellings in all countries. Forecast from the growth simulator SIBYLA shows a substantial increase in the predicted volume of incidental fellings for the years 2021 and 2022, compared with 2020. The volumes of incidental fellings should grow most significantly, especially in Germany, Poland, and Austria. The performed analysis and predictions suggest that the peak of wood volumes damaged by disturbances in the next decade will probably be reached already in the reports for 2021 or 2022. However, the risk of disturbances remains high, and other large-scale area disturbances in forest ecosystems cannot be completely ruled out.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/4/554natural disturbancesclimate changegrowth simulator SIBYLAdamagedynamicsmanagement |
| spellingShingle | Miloš Gejdoš Katarína Michajlová Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe Forests natural disturbances climate change growth simulator SIBYLA damage dynamics management |
| title | Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe |
| title_full | Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe |
| title_short | Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe |
| title_sort | analysis of current and future forest disturbances dynamics in central europe |
| topic | natural disturbances climate change growth simulator SIBYLA damage dynamics management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/4/554 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT milosgejdos analysisofcurrentandfutureforestdisturbancesdynamicsincentraleurope AT katarinamichajlova analysisofcurrentandfutureforestdisturbancesdynamicsincentraleurope |