Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance
Background We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period. Research design and methods A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Expert Review of Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2158816 |
| _version_ | 1827813136735928320 |
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| author | Diana Mendes Ruth Chapman Elena Aruffo Peter Gal Jennifer L. Nguyen Libby Hamson Manuela Di Fusco Carole Czudek Jingyan Yang |
| author_facet | Diana Mendes Ruth Chapman Elena Aruffo Peter Gal Jennifer L. Nguyen Libby Hamson Manuela Di Fusco Carole Czudek Jingyan Yang |
| author_sort | Diana Mendes |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period. Research design and methods A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination programs. Input sources were publicly available data and targeted literature reviews. Base case analyses estimated outcomes from the UK’s Autumn–Winter 2021–2022 booster program during January–March 2022, an Omicron-predominant period. Scenario analyses projected outcomes from Spring and in Autumn 2022 booster programs over an extended time horizon from April 2022–April 2023, assuming continued Omicron predominance, and explored hypothetical program alternatives with modified eligibility criteria and/or increased uptake. Results Estimates predicted that the Autumn–Winter 2021–2022 booster program averted approximately 12.8 million cases, 1.1 million hospitalizations, and 290,000 deaths. Scenario analyses suggested that Spring and Autumn 2022 programs would avert approximately 6.2 million cases, 716,000 hospitalizations, and 125,000 deaths; alternatives extending eligibility or targeting risk groups would improve these benefits, and increasing uptake would further strengthen impact. Conclusions Boosters were estimated to provide substantial benefit to UK public health during Omicron predominance. Benefits of booster vaccination could be maximized by extending eligibility and increasing uptake. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:28:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0e9fa56dda114cc78b55180b165651d3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1476-0584 1744-8395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:28:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Expert Review of Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-0e9fa56dda114cc78b55180b165651d32023-09-20T10:33:43ZengTaylor & Francis GroupExpert Review of Vaccines1476-05841744-83952023-12-012219010310.1080/14760584.2023.21588162158816Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominanceDiana Mendes0Ruth Chapman1Elena Aruffo2Peter Gal3Jennifer L. Nguyen4Libby Hamson5Manuela Di Fusco6Carole Czudek7Jingyan Yang8Health & Value, Evidence Synthesis, Modeling and Communication, Pfizer LtdEvidence Synthesis, Modeling and Communication, EvideraEvidence Synthesis, Modeling and Communication, EvideraEvidence Synthesis, Modeling and Communication, EvideraVaccines Medical Development & Scientific/Clinical Affairs, Pfizer IncHealth & Value, Evidence Synthesis, Modeling and Communication, Pfizer LtdHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, Pfizer IncVaccines Medical Affairs, Pfizer LtdHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, Pfizer IncBackground We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period. Research design and methods A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination programs. Input sources were publicly available data and targeted literature reviews. Base case analyses estimated outcomes from the UK’s Autumn–Winter 2021–2022 booster program during January–March 2022, an Omicron-predominant period. Scenario analyses projected outcomes from Spring and in Autumn 2022 booster programs over an extended time horizon from April 2022–April 2023, assuming continued Omicron predominance, and explored hypothetical program alternatives with modified eligibility criteria and/or increased uptake. Results Estimates predicted that the Autumn–Winter 2021–2022 booster program averted approximately 12.8 million cases, 1.1 million hospitalizations, and 290,000 deaths. Scenario analyses suggested that Spring and Autumn 2022 programs would avert approximately 6.2 million cases, 716,000 hospitalizations, and 125,000 deaths; alternatives extending eligibility or targeting risk groups would improve these benefits, and increasing uptake would further strengthen impact. Conclusions Boosters were estimated to provide substantial benefit to UK public health during Omicron predominance. Benefits of booster vaccination could be maximized by extending eligibility and increasing uptake.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2158816covid-19covid-19 booster vaccinationdynamic transmission modelomicron variant (b.1.1.529)public health impactsars-cov-2 |
| spellingShingle | Diana Mendes Ruth Chapman Elena Aruffo Peter Gal Jennifer L. Nguyen Libby Hamson Manuela Di Fusco Carole Czudek Jingyan Yang Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance Expert Review of Vaccines covid-19 covid-19 booster vaccination dynamic transmission model omicron variant (b.1.1.529) public health impact sars-cov-2 |
| title | Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance |
| title_full | Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance |
| title_fullStr | Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance |
| title_short | Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance |
| title_sort | public health impact of uk covid 19 booster vaccination programs during omicron predominance |
| topic | covid-19 covid-19 booster vaccination dynamic transmission model omicron variant (b.1.1.529) public health impact sars-cov-2 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2158816 |
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