Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin
Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simula...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Sensors |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/20/21/6079 |
| _version_ | 1797549785204391936 |
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| author | Leilei Li Jintao Yang Jin Wu |
| author_facet | Leilei Li Jintao Yang Jin Wu |
| author_sort | Leilei Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:20:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ee2be040b4d4666bc74f919650e7477 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1424-8220 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:20:23Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Sensors |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ee2be040b4d4666bc74f919650e74772023-11-20T18:32:32ZengMDPI AGSensors1424-82202020-10-012021607910.3390/s20216079Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi BasinLeilei Li0Jintao Yang1Jin Wu2State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, ChinaGlobal warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/20/21/6079NEX-GDDP datasetCA-Markov modelSWAT modelTaihu basinflood risk |
| spellingShingle | Leilei Li Jintao Yang Jin Wu Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin Sensors NEX-GDDP dataset CA-Markov model SWAT model Taihu basin flood risk |
| title | Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin |
| title_full | Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin |
| title_fullStr | Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin |
| title_short | Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin |
| title_sort | future flood risk assessment under the effects of land use and climate change in the tiaoxi basin |
| topic | NEX-GDDP dataset CA-Markov model SWAT model Taihu basin flood risk |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/20/21/6079 |
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