The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility
Previous research has found that people consult closeness or proximity cues when they evaluate the plausibility or likelihood of a counterfactual alternative to reality. In this paper we asked whether the plausibility of counterfactuals extends to dynamic proximity cues that signal a sense of propen...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2014-11-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14107a/jdm14107a.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797711149533233152 |
|---|---|
| author | Judith Covey Qiyuan Zhang |
| author_facet | Judith Covey Qiyuan Zhang |
| author_sort | Judith Covey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Previous research has
found that people consult closeness or proximity cues when they evaluate the
plausibility or likelihood of a counterfactual alternative to reality. In this
paper we asked whether the plausibility of counterfactuals extends to dynamic
proximity cues that signal a sense of propensity or acceleration in the lead-up
to an outcome. Subjects gambled on obtaining either three heads or three tails
from three coin-flips. When they lost the gamble they thought it was more
likely that they could have won if they had lost on the third coin-flip that
was revealed rather than the first or second coin-flip. We discuss how the
sense of propensity was raised prior to the revelation of the final decisive
losing coin-flip which created a perception of psychological momentum towards
winning. Moreover, the consequence of this propensity effect was to positively
bias perceptions of the likelihood of the counterfactual winning outcome. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T07:02:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ef439b3bfba4e4aa90f17c07a0fed55 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T07:02:49Z |
| publishDate | 2014-11-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ef439b3bfba4e4aa90f17c07a0fed552023-09-02T23:37:36ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752014-11-0196586592The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibilityJudith CoveyQiyuan ZhangPrevious research has found that people consult closeness or proximity cues when they evaluate the plausibility or likelihood of a counterfactual alternative to reality. In this paper we asked whether the plausibility of counterfactuals extends to dynamic proximity cues that signal a sense of propensity or acceleration in the lead-up to an outcome. Subjects gambled on obtaining either three heads or three tails from three coin-flips. When they lost the gamble they thought it was more likely that they could have won if they had lost on the third coin-flip that was revealed rather than the first or second coin-flip. We discuss how the sense of propensity was raised prior to the revelation of the final decisive losing coin-flip which created a perception of psychological momentum towards winning. Moreover, the consequence of this propensity effect was to positively bias perceptions of the likelihood of the counterfactual winning outcome.http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14107a/jdm14107a.pdfcounterfactual potency near-miss close counterfactuals proximity heuristic temporal-order effect propensity effect.NAKeywords |
| spellingShingle | Judith Covey Qiyuan Zhang The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility Judgment and Decision Making counterfactual potency near-miss close counterfactuals proximity heuristic temporal-order effect propensity effect.NAKeywords |
| title | The effect of
dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility |
| title_full | The effect of
dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility |
| title_fullStr | The effect of
dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of
dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility |
| title_short | The effect of
dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility |
| title_sort | effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility |
| topic | counterfactual potency near-miss close counterfactuals proximity heuristic temporal-order effect propensity effect.NAKeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14107a/jdm14107a.pdf |
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