Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming
A sufficient freshwater supply is vital for humans, ecosystems, and economies, but anticipated climate and socio-economic change are expected to substantially alter water availability. Across Europe, about two-third of the abstracted freshwater comes from rivers and streams. Various hydrological stu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acec60 |
| _version_ | 1797741942804578304 |
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| author | Peter Greve Peter Burek Luca Guillaumot Erik van Meijgaard Emma Aalbers Mikhail M Smilovic Frederiek Sperna-Weiland Taher Kahil Yoshihide Wada |
| author_facet | Peter Greve Peter Burek Luca Guillaumot Erik van Meijgaard Emma Aalbers Mikhail M Smilovic Frederiek Sperna-Weiland Taher Kahil Yoshihide Wada |
| author_sort | Peter Greve |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A sufficient freshwater supply is vital for humans, ecosystems, and economies, but anticipated climate and socio-economic change are expected to substantially alter water availability. Across Europe, about two-third of the abstracted freshwater comes from rivers and streams. Various hydrological studies address the resulting need for projections on changes in river discharge. However, those assessments rarely specifically account for the impact of various water withdrawal scenarios during low flow periods. We present here a novel, high-resolution hydrological modeling experiment using pseudo-global warming climate data to investigate the effects of changing water withdrawals under 2 K global warming. Especially in Western and Central Europe the projected impacts on low flows highly depend on the chosen water withdrawal assumption and can severely decrease under the worst case assumptions. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for future water withdrawals in low flow projections, showing that climate-focused impact assessments in near-natural catchments provide only one piece of the anticipated response and do not necessarily reflect changes in heavily managed river basins. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:33:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0f5fc040d39640dfb8e451789c59f08e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:33:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0f5fc040d39640dfb8e451789c59f08e2023-08-17T10:53:26ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118909402010.1088/1748-9326/acec60Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warmingPeter Greve0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9454-0125Peter Burek1Luca Guillaumot2Erik van Meijgaard3Emma Aalbers4Mikhail M Smilovic5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9651-8821Frederiek Sperna-Weiland6Taher Kahil7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7812-5271Yoshihide Wada8https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539Water Security Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, Austria; Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon , Hamburg, GermanyWater Security Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, AustriaWater Security Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, AustriaRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, The NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, The NetherlandsWater Security Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, AustriaDeltares , Delft, The NetherlandsWater Security Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, AustriaClimate and Livability Initiative, Center for Desert Agriculture, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology , Thuwal, Saudi ArabiaA sufficient freshwater supply is vital for humans, ecosystems, and economies, but anticipated climate and socio-economic change are expected to substantially alter water availability. Across Europe, about two-third of the abstracted freshwater comes from rivers and streams. Various hydrological studies address the resulting need for projections on changes in river discharge. However, those assessments rarely specifically account for the impact of various water withdrawal scenarios during low flow periods. We present here a novel, high-resolution hydrological modeling experiment using pseudo-global warming climate data to investigate the effects of changing water withdrawals under 2 K global warming. Especially in Western and Central Europe the projected impacts on low flows highly depend on the chosen water withdrawal assumption and can severely decrease under the worst case assumptions. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for future water withdrawals in low flow projections, showing that climate-focused impact assessments in near-natural catchments provide only one piece of the anticipated response and do not necessarily reflect changes in heavily managed river basins.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acec60low flowshydrologywater usewater demandclimate changepseudo global warming |
| spellingShingle | Peter Greve Peter Burek Luca Guillaumot Erik van Meijgaard Emma Aalbers Mikhail M Smilovic Frederiek Sperna-Weiland Taher Kahil Yoshihide Wada Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming Environmental Research Letters low flows hydrology water use water demand climate change pseudo global warming |
| title | Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming |
| title_full | Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming |
| title_fullStr | Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming |
| title_short | Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming |
| title_sort | low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in central and southwestern europe under 2 k global warming |
| topic | low flows hydrology water use water demand climate change pseudo global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acec60 |
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