A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico
Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border and across northern Mexico, the brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, is responsible for sprea...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2024-09-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000629 |
| _version_ | 1797198761073573888 |
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| author | Laura Backus Patrick Foley Janet Foley |
| author_facet | Laura Backus Patrick Foley Janet Foley |
| author_sort | Laura Backus |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border and across northern Mexico, the brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, is responsible for spreading the disease between dogs and humans. The widespread nature of the disease and the ongoing epidemics contrast with historically sporadic patterns of the disease. Because dogs are amplifying hosts for the Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria, transmission dynamics between dogs and ticks are critical for understanding the epidemic. In this paper, we developed a compartment metapopulation model and used it to explore the dynamics and drivers of RMSF in dogs and brown dog ticks in a theoretical region in western North America. We discovered that there is an extended lag—as much as two years—between introduction of the pathogen to a naïve population and epidemic-level transmission, suggesting that infected ticks could disseminate extensively before disease is detected. A single large city-size population of dogs was sufficient to maintain the disease over a decade and serve as a source for disease in surrounding smaller towns. This model is a novel tool that can be used to identify high risk areas and key intervention points for epidemic RMSF spread by brown dog ticks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:04:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0f64b6d72f974130b4faaa74354900d0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:04:59Z |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-0f64b6d72f974130b4faaa74354900d02024-04-22T04:11:52ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272024-09-0193713727A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern MexicoLaura Backus0Patrick Foley1Janet Foley2School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USADepartment of Biological Sciences, California State University, Sacramento, CA, USASchool of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA; Corresponding author. 320 Tupper Hall, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border and across northern Mexico, the brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, is responsible for spreading the disease between dogs and humans. The widespread nature of the disease and the ongoing epidemics contrast with historically sporadic patterns of the disease. Because dogs are amplifying hosts for the Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria, transmission dynamics between dogs and ticks are critical for understanding the epidemic. In this paper, we developed a compartment metapopulation model and used it to explore the dynamics and drivers of RMSF in dogs and brown dog ticks in a theoretical region in western North America. We discovered that there is an extended lag—as much as two years—between introduction of the pathogen to a naïve population and epidemic-level transmission, suggesting that infected ticks could disseminate extensively before disease is detected. A single large city-size population of dogs was sufficient to maintain the disease over a decade and serve as a source for disease in surrounding smaller towns. This model is a novel tool that can be used to identify high risk areas and key intervention points for epidemic RMSF spread by brown dog ticks.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000629Compartment modelRocky mountain spotted feverSIR modelMetapopulationZoonosis |
| spellingShingle | Laura Backus Patrick Foley Janet Foley A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico Infectious Disease Modelling Compartment model Rocky mountain spotted fever SIR model Metapopulation Zoonosis |
| title | A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico |
| title_full | A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico |
| title_fullStr | A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico |
| title_short | A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico |
| title_sort | compartment and metapopulation model of rocky mountain spotted fever in southwestern united states and northern mexico |
| topic | Compartment model Rocky mountain spotted fever SIR model Metapopulation Zoonosis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000629 |
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