The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa
In this work, we explore two mechanisms that explain non-Gaussian behaviour of power-grid frequency recordings in the South African grid. We make use of a Fokker–Planck approach to power-grid frequency that yields a direct relation between common model parameters such as inertia, damping, and noise...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Physics: Complexity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/acb629 |
| _version_ | 1797844574818795520 |
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| author | Leonardo Rydin Gorjão Jacques Maritz |
| author_facet | Leonardo Rydin Gorjão Jacques Maritz |
| author_sort | Leonardo Rydin Gorjão |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this work, we explore two mechanisms that explain non-Gaussian behaviour of power-grid frequency recordings in the South African grid. We make use of a Fokker–Planck approach to power-grid frequency that yields a direct relation between common model parameters such as inertia, damping, and noise amplitude and non-parametric estimations of the same directly from power-grid frequency recordings. We propose two explanations for the non-Gaussian leptokurtic distributions in South Africa: the first based on multiplicative noise in power-grid frequency recordings, which we observe in South Africa; the second based on the well-known scheduled and unscheduled load shedding and rolling blackouts that beset South Africa. For the first we derive an analytic expression of the effects of multiplicative noise that permits the estimation of all statistical moments—and discuss drawbacks in comparison with the data; for the second we employ a simple numerical analysis with a modular power grid of South Africa. Both options help understand the statistics of power-grid frequency in South Africa—particularly the presence of heavy tails. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:25:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0fcabb3455044acbb52f298d356d784a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2632-072X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:25:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Physics: Complexity |
| spelling | doaj.art-0fcabb3455044acbb52f298d356d784a2023-04-18T13:51:24ZengIOP PublishingJournal of Physics: Complexity2632-072X2023-01-014101500710.1088/2632-072X/acb629The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South AfricaLeonardo Rydin Gorjão0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5513-0580Jacques Maritz1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1556-8523Faculty of Science and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences , Ås 1432, Norway; Department of Computer Science, OsloMet–Oslo Metropolitan University , N-0130 Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Engineering Sciences, University of the Free State , Bloemfontein 9301, South AfricaIn this work, we explore two mechanisms that explain non-Gaussian behaviour of power-grid frequency recordings in the South African grid. We make use of a Fokker–Planck approach to power-grid frequency that yields a direct relation between common model parameters such as inertia, damping, and noise amplitude and non-parametric estimations of the same directly from power-grid frequency recordings. We propose two explanations for the non-Gaussian leptokurtic distributions in South Africa: the first based on multiplicative noise in power-grid frequency recordings, which we observe in South Africa; the second based on the well-known scheduled and unscheduled load shedding and rolling blackouts that beset South Africa. For the first we derive an analytic expression of the effects of multiplicative noise that permits the estimation of all statistical moments—and discuss drawbacks in comparison with the data; for the second we employ a simple numerical analysis with a modular power grid of South Africa. Both options help understand the statistics of power-grid frequency in South Africa—particularly the presence of heavy tails.https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/acb629power-grid frequencyFokker–Planck equationLangevin processmultiplicative noise |
| spellingShingle | Leonardo Rydin Gorjão Jacques Maritz The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa Journal of Physics: Complexity power-grid frequency Fokker–Planck equation Langevin process multiplicative noise |
| title | The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa |
| title_full | The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa |
| title_short | The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa |
| title_sort | stochastic nature of power grid frequency in south africa |
| topic | power-grid frequency Fokker–Planck equation Langevin process multiplicative noise |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/acb629 |
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