The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change
Research has demonstrated that members of the public recognize anomalous weather patterns, and that subjective perceptions of the weather are related to beliefs about the occurrence of climate change. Yet despite two decades of scholarship and dozens of studies, inconsistent and insufficient data ha...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acffae |
| _version_ | 1797627579669151744 |
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| author | Deven Carlson Joseph Ripberger Hank Jenkins-Smith Carol Silva Nina Carlson Elizabeth Bell Kuhika Gupta |
| author_facet | Deven Carlson Joseph Ripberger Hank Jenkins-Smith Carol Silva Nina Carlson Elizabeth Bell Kuhika Gupta |
| author_sort | Deven Carlson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research has demonstrated that members of the public recognize anomalous weather patterns, and that subjective perceptions of the weather are related to beliefs about the occurrence of climate change. Yet despite two decades of scholarship and dozens of studies, inconsistent and insufficient data have made it difficult to credibly identify the causal impact of objective experiences on perceptions, and the impact of perceptions on beliefs regarding climate change occurrence. Here, we overcome these limitations by collecting and analyzing data from a 5-y panel survey of 2,500 individuals in Oklahoma, a US state that is highly divided on questions about climate change. Our findings indicate that the relationship between local weather anomalies and climate change beliefs is heavily dependent on baseline beliefs about whether climate change was occurring. For people who did not believe in climate change in the initial survey in our series, perceptions of anomalously hot and dry seasons shifted their beliefs towards the occurrence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas their perceptions of anomalously cool and wet seasons shifted their beliefs away from anthropogenic climate change. This relationship was not present among people who believed that climate change was occurring at the beginning of the study; their perceptions of seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies had no effect on their beliefs about climate change. These patterns have substantial implications for the evolution of public beliefs about climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:27:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0fe7f90fcbda4c1592fac8d67d6fe15a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:27:18Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-0fe7f90fcbda4c1592fac8d67d6fe15a2023-11-15T12:00:28ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-0151111500610.1088/2515-7620/acffaeThe causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate changeDeven Carlson0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3406-7022Joseph Ripberger1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0343-8262Hank Jenkins-Smith2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5204-2726Carol Silva3Nina Carlson4Elizabeth Bell5Kuhika Gupta6University of Oklahoma, United States of AmericaUniversity of Oklahoma, United States of AmericaUniversity of Oklahoma, United States of AmericaUniversity of Oklahoma, United States of AmericaUniversity of Oklahoma, United States of AmericaUniversity of Texas-Austin, United States of AmericaUniversity of Oklahoma, United States of AmericaResearch has demonstrated that members of the public recognize anomalous weather patterns, and that subjective perceptions of the weather are related to beliefs about the occurrence of climate change. Yet despite two decades of scholarship and dozens of studies, inconsistent and insufficient data have made it difficult to credibly identify the causal impact of objective experiences on perceptions, and the impact of perceptions on beliefs regarding climate change occurrence. Here, we overcome these limitations by collecting and analyzing data from a 5-y panel survey of 2,500 individuals in Oklahoma, a US state that is highly divided on questions about climate change. Our findings indicate that the relationship between local weather anomalies and climate change beliefs is heavily dependent on baseline beliefs about whether climate change was occurring. For people who did not believe in climate change in the initial survey in our series, perceptions of anomalously hot and dry seasons shifted their beliefs towards the occurrence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas their perceptions of anomalously cool and wet seasons shifted their beliefs away from anthropogenic climate change. This relationship was not present among people who believed that climate change was occurring at the beginning of the study; their perceptions of seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies had no effect on their beliefs about climate change. These patterns have substantial implications for the evolution of public beliefs about climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acffaeclimate changepanel surveyweather perceptions |
| spellingShingle | Deven Carlson Joseph Ripberger Hank Jenkins-Smith Carol Silva Nina Carlson Elizabeth Bell Kuhika Gupta The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change Environmental Research Communications climate change panel survey weather perceptions |
| title | The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change |
| title_full | The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change |
| title_fullStr | The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change |
| title_short | The causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change |
| title_sort | causal impact of local weather anomalies on beliefs about the occurrence of climate change |
| topic | climate change panel survey weather perceptions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acffae |
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