Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics
We investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic field topology of solar active region (AR) 12673 together can hindcast the occurrence of the biggest X-flares of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow latitude belts warped in longitude, in which ARs are tightly bou...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | The Astrophysical Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acfef0 |
| _version_ | 1797493145207832576 |
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| author | Breno Raphaldini Mausumi Dikpati Aimee A. Norton Andre S. W. Teruya Scott W. McIntosh Christopher B. Prior David MacTaggart |
| author_facet | Breno Raphaldini Mausumi Dikpati Aimee A. Norton Andre S. W. Teruya Scott W. McIntosh Christopher B. Prior David MacTaggart |
| author_sort | Breno Raphaldini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic field topology of solar active region (AR) 12673 together can hindcast the occurrence of the biggest X-flares of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow latitude belts warped in longitude, in which ARs are tightly bound) derived from the surface distributions of ARs, prior and during AR 12673 emergence, reveal that the portions of the south toroid containing AR 12673 was not tipped away from its north-toroid counterpart at that longitude, unlike the 2003 Halloween storms scenario. During the minimum phase there were too few emergences to determine multimode longitudinal toroid patterns. A new emergence within AR 12673 produced a complex nonpotential structure, which led to the rapid buildup of helicity and winding that triggered the biggest X-flare of SC-24, suggesting that this minimum-phase storm can be anticipated several hours before its occurrence. However, global patterns and local dynamics for a peak-phase storm, such as that from AR 11263, behaved like the 2003 Halloween storms, producing the third biggest X-flare of SC-24. AR 11263 was present at the longitude where the north and south toroids tipped away from each other. While global toroid patterns indicate that prestorm features can be forecast with a lead time of a few months, their application to observational data can be complicated by complex interactions with turbulent flows. Complex nonpotential field structure development hours before the storm are necessary for short-term prediction. We infer that minimum-phase storms cannot be forecast accurately more than a few hours ahead, while flare-prone ARs in the peak phase may be anticipated much earlier, possibly months ahead from global toroid patterns. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:15:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0fef77a05f2e405f93cafb9fa40cb6ea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1538-4357 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:15:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Astrophysical Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-0fef77a05f2e405f93cafb9fa40cb6ea2023-11-23T14:08:14ZengIOP PublishingThe Astrophysical Journal1538-43572023-01-01958217510.3847/1538-4357/acfef0Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local DynamicsBreno Raphaldini0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0744-9746Mausumi Dikpati1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2227-0488Aimee A. Norton2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2622-7310Andre S. W. Teruya3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5113-7937Scott W. McIntosh4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7369-1776Christopher B. Prior5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4015-5106David MacTaggart6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2297-9312High Altitude Observatory , NCAR, 3080 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 80301, USAHigh Altitude Observatory , NCAR, 3080 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 80301, USAHansen Experimental Physics Laboratory , 452 Lomita Mall, Stanford, CA 94305-4085, USAInstituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo , São Paulo, BrazilHigh Altitude Observatory , NCAR, 3080 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 80301, USADepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University , Stockton Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UKSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow , Glasgow G12 8QQ, UKWe investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic field topology of solar active region (AR) 12673 together can hindcast the occurrence of the biggest X-flares of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow latitude belts warped in longitude, in which ARs are tightly bound) derived from the surface distributions of ARs, prior and during AR 12673 emergence, reveal that the portions of the south toroid containing AR 12673 was not tipped away from its north-toroid counterpart at that longitude, unlike the 2003 Halloween storms scenario. During the minimum phase there were too few emergences to determine multimode longitudinal toroid patterns. A new emergence within AR 12673 produced a complex nonpotential structure, which led to the rapid buildup of helicity and winding that triggered the biggest X-flare of SC-24, suggesting that this minimum-phase storm can be anticipated several hours before its occurrence. However, global patterns and local dynamics for a peak-phase storm, such as that from AR 11263, behaved like the 2003 Halloween storms, producing the third biggest X-flare of SC-24. AR 11263 was present at the longitude where the north and south toroids tipped away from each other. While global toroid patterns indicate that prestorm features can be forecast with a lead time of a few months, their application to observational data can be complicated by complex interactions with turbulent flows. Complex nonpotential field structure development hours before the storm are necessary for short-term prediction. We infer that minimum-phase storms cannot be forecast accurately more than a few hours ahead, while flare-prone ARs in the peak phase may be anticipated much earlier, possibly months ahead from global toroid patterns.https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acfef0Solar activitySolar flaresSolar stormSolar ARs |
| spellingShingle | Breno Raphaldini Mausumi Dikpati Aimee A. Norton Andre S. W. Teruya Scott W. McIntosh Christopher B. Prior David MacTaggart Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics The Astrophysical Journal Solar activity Solar flares Solar storm Solar ARs |
| title | Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics |
| title_full | Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics |
| title_fullStr | Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics |
| title_short | Deciphering the Pre–solar-storm Features of the 2017 September Storm From Global and Local Dynamics |
| title_sort | deciphering the pre solar storm features of the 2017 september storm from global and local dynamics |
| topic | Solar activity Solar flares Solar storm Solar ARs |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acfef0 |
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