A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC)
Agricultural land-use changes pose challenges for land managers in terms of ensuring the implementation of local land-use plans. This paper aims to build a land-use change model named MEKOLUC (Mekong Delta land-use change) for simulating land-use changes under the impacts of socioeconomic factors (p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Land |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/2/297 |
| _version_ | 1797478667232739328 |
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| author | Quang Chi Truong Thao Hong Nguyen Kenichi Tatsumi Vu Thanh Pham Van Pham Dang Tri |
| author_facet | Quang Chi Truong Thao Hong Nguyen Kenichi Tatsumi Vu Thanh Pham Van Pham Dang Tri |
| author_sort | Quang Chi Truong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Agricultural land-use changes pose challenges for land managers in terms of ensuring the implementation of local land-use plans. This paper aims to build a land-use change model named MEKOLUC (Mekong Delta land-use change) for simulating land-use changes under the impacts of socioeconomic factors (profitability of land-use types, societal impacts on neighborhoods) and environmental factors (soil, salinity, persistence of salinity). The salinity diffusion map was generated using GAMA software and employed Markov cellular automata to depict the spread of salinity under the influence of dike and sluice gate system operations. The land-use decision-making process was based on multi-criteria selection of the main factors, which were land suitability, land convertibility, density of land use in the neighborhood and profitability of land-use patterns. The input data for the case study were historical land-use maps from 2005, 2010 and 2015 of Soc Trang, a coastal province in the Mekong Delta. The model was calibrated using a land-use map from 2010 (with kappa = 0.86) and was verified with land-use maps from 2015 and 2020 with deviations from 0 to 19%. The simulated results showed that shrimp–rice farming areas have been shrinking, even though these are recommended as sustainable farming systems. Inversely, intensive rice crops tended to change to rice–vegetable crops, vegetable crops or perennial fruit trees, which are projected to be well adapted to climate and salinity intrusion by 2030. This case study shows that the developed model is an essential tool for helping land managers and farmers build land-use plans. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:35:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ff4e9ae64ca43c78d4122ea05f5bdc0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:35:57Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ff4e9ae64ca43c78d4122ea05f5bdc02023-11-23T20:44:02ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2022-02-0111229710.3390/land11020297A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC)Quang Chi Truong0Thao Hong Nguyen1Kenichi Tatsumi2Vu Thanh Pham3Van Pham Dang Tri4College of Environment & Natural Resources, Can Tho University, Can Tho 94100, VietnamDepartment of Resource and Environmental Management, College of Technology and Economics of Can Tho, Can Tho 94100, VietnamDivision of Environmental and Agricultural Engineering, Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo 183-0054, JapanCollege of Environment & Natural Resources, Can Tho University, Can Tho 94100, VietnamCollege of Environment & Natural Resources, Can Tho University, Can Tho 94100, VietnamAgricultural land-use changes pose challenges for land managers in terms of ensuring the implementation of local land-use plans. This paper aims to build a land-use change model named MEKOLUC (Mekong Delta land-use change) for simulating land-use changes under the impacts of socioeconomic factors (profitability of land-use types, societal impacts on neighborhoods) and environmental factors (soil, salinity, persistence of salinity). The salinity diffusion map was generated using GAMA software and employed Markov cellular automata to depict the spread of salinity under the influence of dike and sluice gate system operations. The land-use decision-making process was based on multi-criteria selection of the main factors, which were land suitability, land convertibility, density of land use in the neighborhood and profitability of land-use patterns. The input data for the case study were historical land-use maps from 2005, 2010 and 2015 of Soc Trang, a coastal province in the Mekong Delta. The model was calibrated using a land-use map from 2010 (with kappa = 0.86) and was verified with land-use maps from 2015 and 2020 with deviations from 0 to 19%. The simulated results showed that shrimp–rice farming areas have been shrinking, even though these are recommended as sustainable farming systems. Inversely, intensive rice crops tended to change to rice–vegetable crops, vegetable crops or perennial fruit trees, which are projected to be well adapted to climate and salinity intrusion by 2030. This case study shows that the developed model is an essential tool for helping land managers and farmers build land-use plans.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/2/297cellular automataGAMAmulti-criteria decisionMekong Deltaland-use change |
| spellingShingle | Quang Chi Truong Thao Hong Nguyen Kenichi Tatsumi Vu Thanh Pham Van Pham Dang Tri A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC) Land cellular automata GAMA multi-criteria decision Mekong Delta land-use change |
| title | A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC) |
| title_full | A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC) |
| title_fullStr | A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC) |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC) |
| title_short | A Land-Use Change Model to Support Land-Use Planning in the Mekong Delta (MEKOLUC) |
| title_sort | land use change model to support land use planning in the mekong delta mekoluc |
| topic | cellular automata GAMA multi-criteria decision Mekong Delta land-use change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/2/297 |
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