Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination
The COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedba...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2414 |
| _version_ | 1827680725283897344 |
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| author | Cristiano Maria Verrelli Fabio Della Rossa |
| author_facet | Cristiano Maria Verrelli Fabio Della Rossa |
| author_sort | Cristiano Maria Verrelli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedback interventions and finally the implementation of coordinated intermittent regional actions, up to the application, in this last context, of an age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategy. This paper originally aims at identifying, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level during the specific aforementioned scenarios, external-scenario-dependent sets of virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model, in order to provide an interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:54:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ffeae103559497a93cdb9c97ef975cf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:54:40Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ffeae103559497a93cdb9c97ef975cf2023-11-22T16:29:59ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902021-09-01919241410.3390/math9192414Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and VaccinationCristiano Maria Verrelli0Fabio Della Rossa1Electronic Engineering Department, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, ItalyDepartment of Electronic, Information and Biomedical Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, ItalyThe COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedback interventions and finally the implementation of coordinated intermittent regional actions, up to the application, in this last context, of an age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategy. This paper originally aims at identifying, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level during the specific aforementioned scenarios, external-scenario-dependent sets of virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model, in order to provide an interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2414COVID-19 epidemicmodel identificationparameter estimationcompartmental modelnational lockdownregional action |
| spellingShingle | Cristiano Maria Verrelli Fabio Della Rossa Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination Mathematics COVID-19 epidemic model identification parameter estimation compartmental model national lockdown regional action |
| title | Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination |
| title_full | Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination |
| title_fullStr | Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination |
| title_full_unstemmed | Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination |
| title_short | Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination |
| title_sort | two age structured covid 19 epidemic model estimation of virulence parameters to interpret effects of national and regional feedback interventions and vaccination |
| topic | COVID-19 epidemic model identification parameter estimation compartmental model national lockdown regional action |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2414 |
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