Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization
Motivated by learning from experience and exploiting existing knowledge in civil nuclear operations, we have developed in-house generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models for pressurized and boiling water reactors. The models are computationally light, handy, transparent, user-friendly, an...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573322001334 |
| _version_ | 1811344100552605696 |
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| author | Ali Ayoub Wolfgang Kröger Didier Sornette |
| author_facet | Ali Ayoub Wolfgang Kröger Didier Sornette |
| author_sort | Ali Ayoub |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Motivated by learning from experience and exploiting existing knowledge in civil nuclear operations, we have developed in-house generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models for pressurized and boiling water reactors. The models are computationally light, handy, transparent, user-friendly, and easily adaptable to account for major plant-specific differences. They cover the common internal initiating events, frontline and support systems reliability and dependencies, human-factors, common-cause failures, and account for new factors typically overlooked in many PSAs. For quantification, the models use generic US reliability data, precursor analysis reports, the ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database, and experts’ opinions. Moreover, uncertainties in the most influential basic events are addressed. The generated results show good agreement with assessments available in the literature with detailed PSAs. We envision the models as an unbiased framework to measure nuclear operational risk with the same “ruler”, and hence support inter-plant risk comparisons that are usually not possible due to differences in plant-specific PSA assumptions and scopes. The models can be used for initial risk screening, order-of-magnitude precursor analysis, and other research/pedagogic applications especially when no plant-specific PSAs are available. Finally, we are using the generic models for large-scale precursor analysis that will generate big picture trends, lessons, and insights. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:41:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-102b81af810145e99fbd9418550c9624 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1738-5733 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:41:46Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-102b81af810145e99fbd9418550c96242022-12-22T02:32:52ZengElsevierNuclear Engineering and Technology1738-57332022-08-0154829242932Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilizationAli Ayoub0Wolfgang Kröger1Didier Sornette2Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, D-MTEC, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; ETH Risk Center, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; Corresponding author.Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, D-MTEC, ETH Zürich, SwitzerlandChair of Entrepreneurial Risks, D-MTEC, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; ETH Risk Center, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, 518055, ChinaMotivated by learning from experience and exploiting existing knowledge in civil nuclear operations, we have developed in-house generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models for pressurized and boiling water reactors. The models are computationally light, handy, transparent, user-friendly, and easily adaptable to account for major plant-specific differences. They cover the common internal initiating events, frontline and support systems reliability and dependencies, human-factors, common-cause failures, and account for new factors typically overlooked in many PSAs. For quantification, the models use generic US reliability data, precursor analysis reports, the ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database, and experts’ opinions. Moreover, uncertainties in the most influential basic events are addressed. The generated results show good agreement with assessments available in the literature with detailed PSAs. We envision the models as an unbiased framework to measure nuclear operational risk with the same “ruler”, and hence support inter-plant risk comparisons that are usually not possible due to differences in plant-specific PSA assumptions and scopes. The models can be used for initial risk screening, order-of-magnitude precursor analysis, and other research/pedagogic applications especially when no plant-specific PSAs are available. Finally, we are using the generic models for large-scale precursor analysis that will generate big picture trends, lessons, and insights.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573322001334PSAPRARisk analysisPrecursor analysisNuclear safetyOperational experience |
| spellingShingle | Ali Ayoub Wolfgang Kröger Didier Sornette Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization Nuclear Engineering and Technology PSA PRA Risk analysis Precursor analysis Nuclear safety Operational experience |
| title | Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization |
| title_full | Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization |
| title_fullStr | Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization |
| title_full_unstemmed | Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization |
| title_short | Generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models: Precursor analysis and multi-purpose utilization |
| title_sort | generic and adaptive probabilistic safety assessment models precursor analysis and multi purpose utilization |
| topic | PSA PRA Risk analysis Precursor analysis Nuclear safety Operational experience |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573322001334 |
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