Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Pakistan is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change. More specifically, there is concern that climate change may cause longer and severer spells of droughts. To quantify the change in the characteristics of droughts in Pakistan over the years, we have evaluated spatio-tempor...
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MDPI AG
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/9/21/4588 |
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| author | Shoaib Jamro Ghulam Hussain Dars Kamran Ansari Nir Y. Krakauer |
| author_facet | Shoaib Jamro Ghulam Hussain Dars Kamran Ansari Nir Y. Krakauer |
| author_sort | Shoaib Jamro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Pakistan is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change. More specifically, there is concern that climate change may cause longer and severer spells of droughts. To quantify the change in the characteristics of droughts in Pakistan over the years, we have evaluated spatio-temporal trends of droughts in Pakistan over the period 1902−2015 using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the Spatial “K” luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method was employed to regionalize droughts into five contiguous zones. The run theory was then applied to each zone to identify drought events and characterize them in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. Moreover, the Modified Mann−Kendall trend test was applied to identify statistically significant trends in SPEI and drought characteristics in each zone. It was found that the southern areas of Pakistan, encompassing Sindh and most of Baluchistan, have experienced a decrease in SPEI, indicating a drying trend. Central Pakistan has witnessed a wetting trend as demonstrated by an increase in SPEI over time, whereas no statistically significant trend was observed for the northern areas of Pakistan. On a zonal basis, the longest duration drought to occur in Pakistan lasted 22 months in zone 5 (Sindh) from 1968 to 1970. In addition, the droughts of 1920 and 2000 can be said to be the worst drought in the history of the region as it affected all the zones and lasted for more than 10-months in three zones. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T08:16:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-10758f87a8ac40ed82a32bc4793a4ddd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T08:16:27Z |
| publishDate | 2019-10-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-10758f87a8ac40ed82a32bc4793a4ddd2022-12-21T22:38:13ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172019-10-01921458810.3390/app9214588app9214588Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration IndexShoaib Jamro0Ghulam Hussain Dars1Kamran Ansari2Nir Y. Krakauer3U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh 76090, PakistanU.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh 76090, PakistanU.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh 76090, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering and NOAA-CREST, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USAPakistan is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change. More specifically, there is concern that climate change may cause longer and severer spells of droughts. To quantify the change in the characteristics of droughts in Pakistan over the years, we have evaluated spatio-temporal trends of droughts in Pakistan over the period 1902−2015 using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the Spatial “K” luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method was employed to regionalize droughts into five contiguous zones. The run theory was then applied to each zone to identify drought events and characterize them in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. Moreover, the Modified Mann−Kendall trend test was applied to identify statistically significant trends in SPEI and drought characteristics in each zone. It was found that the southern areas of Pakistan, encompassing Sindh and most of Baluchistan, have experienced a decrease in SPEI, indicating a drying trend. Central Pakistan has witnessed a wetting trend as demonstrated by an increase in SPEI over time, whereas no statistically significant trend was observed for the northern areas of Pakistan. On a zonal basis, the longest duration drought to occur in Pakistan lasted 22 months in zone 5 (Sindh) from 1968 to 1970. In addition, the droughts of 1920 and 2000 can be said to be the worst drought in the history of the region as it affected all the zones and lasted for more than 10-months in three zones.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/9/21/4588drought regionalizationpakistanspeirun theoryspatiotemporal analysis |
| spellingShingle | Shoaib Jamro Ghulam Hussain Dars Kamran Ansari Nir Y. Krakauer Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Applied Sciences drought regionalization pakistan spei run theory spatiotemporal analysis |
| title | Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_full | Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_fullStr | Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_short | Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_sort | spatio temporal variability of drought in pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| topic | drought regionalization pakistan spei run theory spatiotemporal analysis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/9/21/4588 |
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