Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems
Irrigated rice croplands are among the world’s most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa954d |
| _version_ | 1797748185436782592 |
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| author | Fanny Langerwisch Tomáš Václavík Werner von Bloh Tobias Vetter Kirsten Thonicke |
| author_facet | Fanny Langerwisch Tomáš Václavík Werner von Bloh Tobias Vetter Kirsten Thonicke |
| author_sort | Fanny Langerwisch |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Irrigated rice croplands are among the world’s most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We quantified future changes in the provision of four essential ESS (carbon storage, carbon sequestration, provision of irrigation water and rice production) under two climate scenarios (until 2100) and three site-specific land-use scenarios (until 2030), and examined the synergies and trade-offs in ESS responses to these drivers. Our results show that not all services can be provided in the same amounts in the future. In the Philippines and Vietnam the projections estimated a decrease in rice yields (by approximately 30%) and in carbon storage (by 15%) and sequestration (by 12%) towards the end of the century under the current land-use pattern. In contrast, the amount of available irrigation water was projected to increase in all scenarios by 10%–20%. However, the results also indicate that land-use change may partially offset the negative climate impacts in regions where cropland expansion is possible, although only at the expense of natural vegetation. When analysing the interactions between ESS, we found consistent synergies between rice production and carbon storage and trade-offs between carbon storage and provision of irrigation water under most scenarios. Our results show that not only the effects of climate and land-use change alone but also the interaction between ESS have to be considered to allow sustainable management of rice agro-ecosystems under global change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-107691c4b4a94dd29fede9ba30c90ad4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:15Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-107691c4b4a94dd29fede9ba30c90ad42023-08-09T14:35:18ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0113101500310.1088/1748-9326/aa954dCombined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystemsFanny Langerwisch0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4744-7427Tomáš Václavík1Werner von Bloh2Tobias Vetter3Kirsten Thonicke4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis , 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB) , 14195 Berlin, Germany; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.UFZ—Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology , 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Palacký University Olomouc, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences , 78371 Olomouc, Czech RepublicPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis , 14473 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities , 14473 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis , 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB) , 14195 Berlin, GermanyIrrigated rice croplands are among the world’s most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We quantified future changes in the provision of four essential ESS (carbon storage, carbon sequestration, provision of irrigation water and rice production) under two climate scenarios (until 2100) and three site-specific land-use scenarios (until 2030), and examined the synergies and trade-offs in ESS responses to these drivers. Our results show that not all services can be provided in the same amounts in the future. In the Philippines and Vietnam the projections estimated a decrease in rice yields (by approximately 30%) and in carbon storage (by 15%) and sequestration (by 12%) towards the end of the century under the current land-use pattern. In contrast, the amount of available irrigation water was projected to increase in all scenarios by 10%–20%. However, the results also indicate that land-use change may partially offset the negative climate impacts in regions where cropland expansion is possible, although only at the expense of natural vegetation. When analysing the interactions between ESS, we found consistent synergies between rice production and carbon storage and trade-offs between carbon storage and provision of irrigation water under most scenarios. Our results show that not only the effects of climate and land-use change alone but also the interaction between ESS have to be considered to allow sustainable management of rice agro-ecosystems under global change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa954dvegetation modellingecosystem servicesriceSoutheast Asialand-use changeclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Fanny Langerwisch Tomáš Václavík Werner von Bloh Tobias Vetter Kirsten Thonicke Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems Environmental Research Letters vegetation modelling ecosystem services rice Southeast Asia land-use change climate change |
| title | Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems |
| title_full | Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems |
| title_fullStr | Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems |
| title_short | Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems |
| title_sort | combined effects of climate and land use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro ecosystems |
| topic | vegetation modelling ecosystem services rice Southeast Asia land-use change climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa954d |
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