The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting
The COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the global crisis of our time. The absence of mass testing and the relevant presence of asymptomatic individuals causes the available data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to be largely under-reported regarding the number of infected individuals and deat...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016821001599 |
| _version_ | 1819141965495664640 |
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| author | Saulo B. Bastos Marcelo M. Morato Daniel O. Cajueiro Julio E. Normey-Rico |
| author_facet | Saulo B. Bastos Marcelo M. Morato Daniel O. Cajueiro Julio E. Normey-Rico |
| author_sort | Saulo B. Bastos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the global crisis of our time. The absence of mass testing and the relevant presence of asymptomatic individuals causes the available data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to be largely under-reported regarding the number of infected individuals and deaths. We develop an adapted Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, which explicitly incorporates the under-reporting and the response of the population to public health policies (confinement measures, widespread use of masks, etc). Large amounts of uncertainty could provide misleading predictions of the COVID-19 spread. In this paper, we discuss the role of uncertainty in these model-based predictions, which is illustrated regarding three key aspects: (i) Assuming that the number of infected individuals is under-reported, we demonstrate anticipation regarding the infection peak. Furthermore, while a model with a single class of infected individuals yields forecasts with increased peaks, a model that considers both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals suggests a decrease of the peak of symptomatic cases. (ii) Considering that the actual amount of deaths is larger than what is being registered, we demonstrate an increase of the mortality rates. (iii) When we consider generally under-reported data, we demonstrate how the transmission and recovery rate model parameters change qualitatively and quantitatively. We also investigate the “the uncertainty tripod”: under-reporting level in terms of cases, deaths, and the true mortality rate of the disease. We demonstrate that if two of these factors are known, the remainder can be inferred, as long as proportions are kept constant. The proposed approach allows one to determine the margins of uncertainty by assessments on the observed and true mortality rates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T12:02:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-107ad72de1034527a9740e99eed41288 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T12:02:50Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-107ad72de1034527a9740e99eed412882022-12-21T18:26:30ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682021-10-0160543634380The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reportingSaulo B. Bastos0Marcelo M. Morato1Daniel O. Cajueiro2Julio E. Normey-Rico3Departamento de Economia, FACE, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, 70910-900 Brasília, Brazil; Machine Learning Laboratory in Finance and Organizations (LAMFO), FACE, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, 70910-900 Brasília, BrazilRenewable Energy Research Group (GPER), Departamento de Automação e Sistemas (DAS), Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianópolis, Brazil; Corresponding author.Departamento de Economia, FACE, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, 70910-900 Brasília, Brazil; Machine Learning Laboratory in Finance and Organizations (LAMFO), FACE, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, 70910-900 Brasília, Brazil; Nacional Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems (INCT-SC), BrazilRenewable Energy Research Group (GPER), Departamento de Automação e Sistemas (DAS), Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianópolis, BrazilThe COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the global crisis of our time. The absence of mass testing and the relevant presence of asymptomatic individuals causes the available data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to be largely under-reported regarding the number of infected individuals and deaths. We develop an adapted Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, which explicitly incorporates the under-reporting and the response of the population to public health policies (confinement measures, widespread use of masks, etc). Large amounts of uncertainty could provide misleading predictions of the COVID-19 spread. In this paper, we discuss the role of uncertainty in these model-based predictions, which is illustrated regarding three key aspects: (i) Assuming that the number of infected individuals is under-reported, we demonstrate anticipation regarding the infection peak. Furthermore, while a model with a single class of infected individuals yields forecasts with increased peaks, a model that considers both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals suggests a decrease of the peak of symptomatic cases. (ii) Considering that the actual amount of deaths is larger than what is being registered, we demonstrate an increase of the mortality rates. (iii) When we consider generally under-reported data, we demonstrate how the transmission and recovery rate model parameters change qualitatively and quantitatively. We also investigate the “the uncertainty tripod”: under-reporting level in terms of cases, deaths, and the true mortality rate of the disease. We demonstrate that if two of these factors are known, the remainder can be inferred, as long as proportions are kept constant. The proposed approach allows one to determine the margins of uncertainty by assessments on the observed and true mortality rates.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016821001599COVID-19Under-reportingSIR modelUncertaintyBrazil |
| spellingShingle | Saulo B. Bastos Marcelo M. Morato Daniel O. Cajueiro Julio E. Normey-Rico The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting Alexandria Engineering Journal COVID-19 Under-reporting SIR model Uncertainty Brazil |
| title | The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting |
| title_full | The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting |
| title_fullStr | The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting |
| title_full_unstemmed | The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting |
| title_short | The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) uncertainty tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting |
| title_sort | covid 19 sars cov 2 uncertainty tripod in brazil assessments on model based predictions with large under reporting |
| topic | COVID-19 Under-reporting SIR model Uncertainty Brazil |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016821001599 |
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