Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China
Based on the U.S. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model, this study has developed the Northwest Mesoscale Numerical Prediction Service and Experimental System (NW-MNPS). Surface and sounding data assimilation has been introduced for this system. Effects of model vertical layers and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2019-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/6/344 |
| _version_ | 1818067336268087296 |
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| author | Tiejun Zhang Yaohui Li Haixia Duan Yuanpu Liu Dingwen Zeng Cailing Zhao Chongshui Gong Ganlin Zhou Linlin Song Pengcheng Yan |
| author_facet | Tiejun Zhang Yaohui Li Haixia Duan Yuanpu Liu Dingwen Zeng Cailing Zhao Chongshui Gong Ganlin Zhou Linlin Song Pengcheng Yan |
| author_sort | Tiejun Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the U.S. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model, this study has developed the Northwest Mesoscale Numerical Prediction Service and Experimental System (NW-MNPS). Surface and sounding data assimilation has been introduced for this system. Effects of model vertical layers and land-use data replacement have been assessed. A year-long forecast validation and analysis have been performed. The following results have been obtained: (1) Data assimilation can improve the performance of regional numerical forecasting. (2) Compared to simulations with 40 vertical layers, simulations with 55 vertical layers are more accurate. The average absolute error and root-mean-square error of the 48 h surface element forecast decrease. The analysis of threat score (TS) and equitable threat score (ETS) shows that there are higher TS and ETS values for various precipitation intense levels, in particular for heavy rainfall when comparing a 55-vertical-layer test with a 40-vertical-layer test. (3) Updating the database to include vegetation coverage can more accurately reflect actual surface conditions. The updated land-use data reduce prediction errors in all domains of the NW-MNPS. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T15:22:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-10911fc2032c438f9fcd9631019bf5f7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T15:22:04Z |
| publishDate | 2019-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-10911fc2032c438f9fcd9631019bf5f72022-12-22T01:43:38ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332019-06-0110634410.3390/atmos10060344atmos10060344Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern ChinaTiejun Zhang0Yaohui Li1Haixia Duan2Yuanpu Liu3Dingwen Zeng4Cailing Zhao5Chongshui Gong6Ganlin Zhou7Linlin Song8Pengcheng Yan9Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaInstitute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration; Lanzhou 730020, ChinaBased on the U.S. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model, this study has developed the Northwest Mesoscale Numerical Prediction Service and Experimental System (NW-MNPS). Surface and sounding data assimilation has been introduced for this system. Effects of model vertical layers and land-use data replacement have been assessed. A year-long forecast validation and analysis have been performed. The following results have been obtained: (1) Data assimilation can improve the performance of regional numerical forecasting. (2) Compared to simulations with 40 vertical layers, simulations with 55 vertical layers are more accurate. The average absolute error and root-mean-square error of the 48 h surface element forecast decrease. The analysis of threat score (TS) and equitable threat score (ETS) shows that there are higher TS and ETS values for various precipitation intense levels, in particular for heavy rainfall when comparing a 55-vertical-layer test with a 40-vertical-layer test. (3) Updating the database to include vegetation coverage can more accurately reflect actual surface conditions. The updated land-use data reduce prediction errors in all domains of the NW-MNPS.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/6/344numerical predictionland-use updatevertical layersdata assimilation |
| spellingShingle | Tiejun Zhang Yaohui Li Haixia Duan Yuanpu Liu Dingwen Zeng Cailing Zhao Chongshui Gong Ganlin Zhou Linlin Song Pengcheng Yan Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China Atmosphere numerical prediction land-use update vertical layers data assimilation |
| title | Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China |
| title_full | Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China |
| title_fullStr | Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China |
| title_short | Development and Evaluation of a WRF-Based Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System in Northwestern China |
| title_sort | development and evaluation of a wrf based mesoscale numerical weather prediction system in northwestern china |
| topic | numerical prediction land-use update vertical layers data assimilation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/6/344 |
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