Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds
Background: Throughout the industrialized world, demand for low skilled labour is falling. The length of schooling is increasing in response, but so is the proportion of individuals not finishing upper secondary school. The objective of this study was to evaluate the associations between labour mark...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-04-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Europe |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776221000259 |
| _version_ | 1819295132551217152 |
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| author | Nora Döring, PhD Michael Lundberg, MSc Christina Dalman, Prof Tomas Hemmingsson, Prof Finn Rasmussen, Prof Alma Sörberg Wallin, PhD Susanne Wicks, PhD Cecilia Magnusson, Prof Anton Lager, PhD |
| author_facet | Nora Döring, PhD Michael Lundberg, MSc Christina Dalman, Prof Tomas Hemmingsson, Prof Finn Rasmussen, Prof Alma Sörberg Wallin, PhD Susanne Wicks, PhD Cecilia Magnusson, Prof Anton Lager, PhD |
| author_sort | Nora Döring, PhD |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Throughout the industrialized world, demand for low skilled labour is falling. The length of schooling is increasing in response, but so is the proportion of individuals not finishing upper secondary school. The objective of this study was to evaluate the associations between labour market positions at age 18 and all-cause and suicide- and accident-specific mortality in later adulthood. Methods: Labour market positions at age 18 were categorized for all Swedes born 1972-77 (n=630 959) into four main groups: employed, successful students, students not about to qualify (SNAQs), and individuals not in employment, education or training (NEETs). Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to assess all-cause, suicide and accident mortality up to 2016 (ages 39-44), adjusting for high school grades, parental and own prior psychiatric diagnoses, and childhood socioeconomic status. Findings: SNAQs had substantially increased all-cause (men: HR=2.10; 95% CI 1.92-2.28, women: HR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.44-1.86), suicide (men: HR=2.16; CI: 1.86-2.51, women: HR=2.10; 95% CI 1.64-2.69), and accident specific (men: HR=2.08; 95% CI 1.77-2.44, women: 1.87; 95% CI 1.33;2.62) mortality risks compared to successful students. The risks were similar for NEETs. There was no increased risk among full-time employed compared to successful students. Interpretation: Expanding the educational system may be a natural response to falling demand for low skilled labour but not by far one that corrects the major societal challenge of it. Unless educational systems adequately respond to this challenge, only more inequality is to be expected ahead. Funding: This work was supported by a grant to FR and AL from the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life, and Welfare with contract number (2014-2009). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T04:37:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-10960affc8ba4cc4ac39bba2df0202f2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7762 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T04:37:21Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Europe |
| spelling | doaj.art-10960affc8ba4cc4ac39bba2df0202f22022-12-21T17:15:02ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Europe2666-77622021-04-013100048Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-oldsNora Döring, PhD0Michael Lundberg, MSc1Christina Dalman, Prof2Tomas Hemmingsson, Prof3Finn Rasmussen, Prof4Alma Sörberg Wallin, PhD5Susanne Wicks, PhD6Cecilia Magnusson, Prof7Anton Lager, PhD8Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Corresponding author.Department of Global Public Health, Prevention Intervention and Mechanisms in Public Health (PRIME Health), Karolinska Institutet, SwedenDepartment of Global Public Health, Epidemiology of Psychiatric Conditions, Substance Use and Social Environment (EPiCSS), Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Centre for Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, SwedenInstitute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Departmet of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, RetiredDepartment of Global Public Health, Epidemiology of Psychiatric Conditions, Substance Use and Social Environment (EPiCSS), Karolinska Institutet, SwedenDepartment of Global Public Health, Epidemiology of Psychiatric Conditions, Substance Use and Social Environment (EPiCSS), Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Centre for Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Global Public Health, Prevention Intervention and Mechanisms in Public Health (PRIME Health), Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Centre for Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Global Public Health, Prevention Intervention and Mechanisms in Public Health (PRIME Health), Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Centre for Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, SwedenBackground: Throughout the industrialized world, demand for low skilled labour is falling. The length of schooling is increasing in response, but so is the proportion of individuals not finishing upper secondary school. The objective of this study was to evaluate the associations between labour market positions at age 18 and all-cause and suicide- and accident-specific mortality in later adulthood. Methods: Labour market positions at age 18 were categorized for all Swedes born 1972-77 (n=630 959) into four main groups: employed, successful students, students not about to qualify (SNAQs), and individuals not in employment, education or training (NEETs). Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to assess all-cause, suicide and accident mortality up to 2016 (ages 39-44), adjusting for high school grades, parental and own prior psychiatric diagnoses, and childhood socioeconomic status. Findings: SNAQs had substantially increased all-cause (men: HR=2.10; 95% CI 1.92-2.28, women: HR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.44-1.86), suicide (men: HR=2.16; CI: 1.86-2.51, women: HR=2.10; 95% CI 1.64-2.69), and accident specific (men: HR=2.08; 95% CI 1.77-2.44, women: 1.87; 95% CI 1.33;2.62) mortality risks compared to successful students. The risks were similar for NEETs. There was no increased risk among full-time employed compared to successful students. Interpretation: Expanding the educational system may be a natural response to falling demand for low skilled labour but not by far one that corrects the major societal challenge of it. Unless educational systems adequately respond to this challenge, only more inequality is to be expected ahead. Funding: This work was supported by a grant to FR and AL from the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life, and Welfare with contract number (2014-2009).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776221000259Educationunemploymentschool dropoutmortalitymental healthNEET |
| spellingShingle | Nora Döring, PhD Michael Lundberg, MSc Christina Dalman, Prof Tomas Hemmingsson, Prof Finn Rasmussen, Prof Alma Sörberg Wallin, PhD Susanne Wicks, PhD Cecilia Magnusson, Prof Anton Lager, PhD Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds The Lancet Regional Health. Europe Education unemployment school dropout mortality mental health NEET |
| title | Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds |
| title_full | Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds |
| title_fullStr | Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds |
| title_full_unstemmed | Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds |
| title_short | Labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life: A 26-year follow-up of 569 528 Swedish 18 year-olds |
| title_sort | labour market position of young people and premature mortality in adult life a 26 year follow up of 569 528 swedish 18 year olds |
| topic | Education unemployment school dropout mortality mental health NEET |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776221000259 |
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