Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
<p>Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the risk (probability of occurrence of a hazard) of extreme weather events in the future. Previous studies have robustly shown how and where climate change has already changed the risks of weather extremes. However, developing countries hav...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-11-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/5737/2022/hess-26-5737-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811220896136822784 |
|---|---|
| author | R. H. Rimi R. H. Rimi K. Haustein K. Haustein E. J. Barbour E. J. Barbour S. N. Sparrow S. Li S. Li D. C. H. Wallom M. R. Allen |
| author_facet | R. H. Rimi R. H. Rimi K. Haustein K. Haustein E. J. Barbour E. J. Barbour S. N. Sparrow S. Li S. Li D. C. H. Wallom M. R. Allen |
| author_sort | R. H. Rimi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the risk
(probability of occurrence of a hazard) of extreme weather events in the
future. Previous studies have robustly shown how and where climate change
has already changed the risks of weather extremes. However, developing
countries have been somewhat underrepresented in these studies, despite high
vulnerability and limited capacities to adapt. How additional global warming
would affect the future risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh needs
to be addressed to limit adverse impacts. Our study focuses on understanding
and quantifying the relative risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh
under the Paris Agreement temperature goals of 1.5 and
2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming above pre-industrial levels. In particular, we
investigate the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on these risks given
their likely future reduction and resulting amplification of global warming.
Using large ensemble regional climate model simulations from weather@home
under different forcing scenarios, we compare the risks of rainfall events
under pre-industrial (natural; NAT), current (actual; ACT), 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warmer, and greenhouse gas (GHG)-only (with
pre-industrial levels of anthropogenic aerosols) conditions. Both GHGs and
anthropogenic aerosols have an impact on seasonal mean rainfall over this
region. In general, higher global mean temperature levels lead to higher
rainfall and higher aerosol concentrations to lower rainfall, however the
relative importance of the two factors varies between the regions. For
extreme rainfall events, we find that the risk of a 1 in 100 year rainfall
episode has already increased significantly compared with pre- industrial
levels across parts of Bangladesh, with additional increases likely for 1.5
and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming. Climate change impacts on the probabilities of
extreme rainfall episodes are found during both pre-monsoon and monsoon
seasons. Results show that reduction in anthropogenic aerosols will
exacerbate the effects of GHG-induced warming and thereby increasing the
rainfall intensity, which has otherwise attenuated the impacts. We highlight
that the net aerosol effect varies from region to region within Bangladesh,
which leads to different outcomes of aerosol reduction on extreme rainfall
statistics and must therefore be considered in future risk assessments.
While there is a substantial reduction in risk at 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming
when compared to 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming, the difference is spatially and
temporally variable too, specifically with respect to seasonal extreme
rainfall events.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:49:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-10a87c7fcbfb4dbbbf0a23b2ad988f4d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:49:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-10a87c7fcbfb4dbbbf0a23b2ad988f4d2022-12-22T03:41:37ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382022-11-01265737575610.5194/hess-26-5737-2022Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the storyR. H. Rimi0R. H. Rimi1K. Haustein2K. Haustein3E. J. Barbour4E. J. Barbour5S. N. Sparrow6S. Li7S. Li8D. C. H. Wallom9M. R. Allen10Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UKDepartment of Environmental Science and Resource Management, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail 1902, BangladeshEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UKDepartment of Meteorology, University Leipzig, Stephanstr. 3, 04103 Leipzig, GermanyEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UKCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, AustraliaDepartment of Engineering Science, Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, UKEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UKDepartment of Engineering Science, Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, UKDepartment of Engineering Science, Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, UKEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK<p>Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the risk (probability of occurrence of a hazard) of extreme weather events in the future. Previous studies have robustly shown how and where climate change has already changed the risks of weather extremes. However, developing countries have been somewhat underrepresented in these studies, despite high vulnerability and limited capacities to adapt. How additional global warming would affect the future risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh needs to be addressed to limit adverse impacts. Our study focuses on understanding and quantifying the relative risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under the Paris Agreement temperature goals of 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming above pre-industrial levels. In particular, we investigate the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on these risks given their likely future reduction and resulting amplification of global warming. Using large ensemble regional climate model simulations from weather@home under different forcing scenarios, we compare the risks of rainfall events under pre-industrial (natural; NAT), current (actual; ACT), 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warmer, and greenhouse gas (GHG)-only (with pre-industrial levels of anthropogenic aerosols) conditions. Both GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols have an impact on seasonal mean rainfall over this region. In general, higher global mean temperature levels lead to higher rainfall and higher aerosol concentrations to lower rainfall, however the relative importance of the two factors varies between the regions. For extreme rainfall events, we find that the risk of a 1 in 100 year rainfall episode has already increased significantly compared with pre- industrial levels across parts of Bangladesh, with additional increases likely for 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming. Climate change impacts on the probabilities of extreme rainfall episodes are found during both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Results show that reduction in anthropogenic aerosols will exacerbate the effects of GHG-induced warming and thereby increasing the rainfall intensity, which has otherwise attenuated the impacts. We highlight that the net aerosol effect varies from region to region within Bangladesh, which leads to different outcomes of aerosol reduction on extreme rainfall statistics and must therefore be considered in future risk assessments. While there is a substantial reduction in risk at 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming when compared to 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming, the difference is spatially and temporally variable too, specifically with respect to seasonal extreme rainfall events.</p>https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/5737/2022/hess-26-5737-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | R. H. Rimi R. H. Rimi K. Haustein K. Haustein E. J. Barbour E. J. Barbour S. N. Sparrow S. Li S. Li D. C. H. Wallom M. R. Allen Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story |
| title_full | Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story |
| title_fullStr | Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story |
| title_short | Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story |
| title_sort | risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in bangladesh under 1 5 and 2 0 thinsp °c warmer worlds how anthropogenic aerosols change the story |
| url | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/5737/2022/hess-26-5737-2022.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rhrimi risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT rhrimi risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT khaustein risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT khaustein risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT ejbarbour risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT ejbarbour risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT snsparrow risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT sli risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT sli risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT dchwallom risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory AT mrallen risksofseasonalextremerainfalleventsinbangladeshunder15and20thinspcwarmerworldshowanthropogenicaerosolschangethestory |