GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY
The article is devoted to the analysis of absolute and relative indicators of Ukraine’s public debt in order to identify threats to its economic security. A critical analysis of the “Guidelines for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine” in terms of assessing external threats and su...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universytet imeni Alfreda Nobelya
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Akademičnij Oglâd |
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| Online Access: | https://acadrev.duan.edu.ua/images/PDF/2021/2/4.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811306906078150656 |
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| author | Oleksandr A. Zadoia |
| author_facet | Oleksandr A. Zadoia |
| author_sort | Oleksandr A. Zadoia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article is devoted to the analysis of absolute and relative indicators of Ukraine’s public debt
in order to identify threats to its economic security. A critical analysis of the “Guidelines for calculating
the level of economic security of Ukraine” in terms of assessing external threats and substantiated
proposals for their improvement. The dynamics of total public debt in general and external debt, in
particular, has been specially studied; the ratio of public debt to GDP and the state budget; public
debt service costs. Particular attention is paid to the IMF composite index, which allows to assess the
adequacy of official gold and foreign exchange reserves to cover the needs of external debt. According
to the analysis, most of Ukraine’s public debt indicators exceed the established thresholds, which poses
a real threat to the country’s economic security. If the ratio of public debt to GDP in recent years has
been reduced to the upper limit of the safe level, the parameters of the ratio of external debt to the state
budget and the share of expenditures on servicing government debt are twice the Ukrainian values.
This situation can create a problem with timely repayment of debts, which will reduce the confidence
of creditors and increase the cost of new borrowing and will push Ukraine to enter the debt spiral.
This necessitates the development of a system of special measures to stabilize the situation both by
reducing debt and maintenance costs, and by increasing state budget revenues. At the same time, such
an important indicator as the composite index of the IMF for the last 6 years has not only seen a positive
trend, but also the achievement (and even a slight excess) of the normative value. This is evidence
of the potential of the Ukrainian economy to solve the problem of debt without particularly negative
consequences, both internal and external. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:53:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-10ece7df129f4a2fb0a988611dc81d64 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2074-5354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:53:59Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Universytet imeni Alfreda Nobelya |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Akademičnij Oglâd |
| spelling | doaj.art-10ece7df129f4a2fb0a988611dc81d642022-12-22T02:53:20ZengUniversytet imeni Alfreda NobelyaAkademičnij Oglâd2074-53542021-12-01255233210.32342/2074-5354-2021-2-55-3GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITYOleksandr A. Zadoia0Alfred Nobel University (Ukraine)The article is devoted to the analysis of absolute and relative indicators of Ukraine’s public debt in order to identify threats to its economic security. A critical analysis of the “Guidelines for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine” in terms of assessing external threats and substantiated proposals for their improvement. The dynamics of total public debt in general and external debt, in particular, has been specially studied; the ratio of public debt to GDP and the state budget; public debt service costs. Particular attention is paid to the IMF composite index, which allows to assess the adequacy of official gold and foreign exchange reserves to cover the needs of external debt. According to the analysis, most of Ukraine’s public debt indicators exceed the established thresholds, which poses a real threat to the country’s economic security. If the ratio of public debt to GDP in recent years has been reduced to the upper limit of the safe level, the parameters of the ratio of external debt to the state budget and the share of expenditures on servicing government debt are twice the Ukrainian values. This situation can create a problem with timely repayment of debts, which will reduce the confidence of creditors and increase the cost of new borrowing and will push Ukraine to enter the debt spiral. This necessitates the development of a system of special measures to stabilize the situation both by reducing debt and maintenance costs, and by increasing state budget revenues. At the same time, such an important indicator as the composite index of the IMF for the last 6 years has not only seen a positive trend, but also the achievement (and even a slight excess) of the normative value. This is evidence of the potential of the Ukrainian economy to solve the problem of debt without particularly negative consequences, both internal and external.https://acadrev.duan.edu.ua/images/PDF/2021/2/4.pdfpublic and state-guaranteed debtexternal debteconomic security |
| spellingShingle | Oleksandr A. Zadoia GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY Akademičnij Oglâd public and state-guaranteed debt external debt economic security |
| title | GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY |
| title_full | GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY |
| title_fullStr | GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY |
| title_full_unstemmed | GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY |
| title_short | GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SECURITY |
| title_sort | government debt as a threat to the country s economic security |
| topic | public and state-guaranteed debt external debt economic security |
| url | https://acadrev.duan.edu.ua/images/PDF/2021/2/4.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oleksandrazadoia governmentdebtasathreattothecountryseconomicsecurity |