Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam
Farmers’ agricultural practices in Vietnam are highly sensitive to weather, climate variability and climate change. The lack of timely and actionable climate-informed agricultural advice leads to significant input and yield losses, which can render investments in farming unprofitable. Development or...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000310 |
| _version_ | 1811309718256222208 |
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| author | Thi Thu Giang Luu Cory Whitney Lisa Biber-Freudenberger Eike Luedeling |
| author_facet | Thi Thu Giang Luu Cory Whitney Lisa Biber-Freudenberger Eike Luedeling |
| author_sort | Thi Thu Giang Luu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Farmers’ agricultural practices in Vietnam are highly sensitive to weather, climate variability and climate change. The lack of timely and actionable climate-informed agricultural advice leads to significant input and yield losses, which can render investments in farming unprofitable. Development organizations in Vietnam have provided agro-climate services (ACS) to smallholder farmers on a limited scale. They advocate for the government to consider upscaling the provision of ACS, but a large-scale roll-out could strain the government’s financial and human resources. Evaluating the merits of climate services is challenging, because weather and climate risks, as well as the benefits that information services may provide, cannot be derived from robust existing datasets or predicted with certainty.CARE in Vietnam, a non-government organization, has provided ACS in two communes in Dien Bien District since 2015 and they expect to upscale their intervention. In this study, we used a decision analysis approach to develop conceptual models and probabilistic simulations to conduct an ex-ante cost-benefit analysis of four candidate interventions aiming to scale ACS in Dien Bien District, Vietnam. Our analysis was conducted in collaboration with CARE in Vietnam’s project staff, Dien Bien government staff and other experts. Our simulation results indicated a very high chance (98.35–99.81%) of the ACS interventions providing net benefits. With 90% confidence, investments in ACS would return benefits between 1.45 and 16.02 USD per 1 USD invested. Our framework offers a foundation for the design, implementation and evaluation of ACS. The cost-benefit analysis provides support to the government’s potential decision-making process and suggests replacing deterministic with probabilistic approaches when analyzing uncertain and complex decisions in development planning. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:46:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-10f737d4c8854bffb0d153d3a4f87153 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:46:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-10f737d4c8854bffb0d153d3a4f871532022-12-22T02:51:43ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072022-08-0127100313Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, VietnamThi Thu Giang Luu0Cory Whitney1Lisa Biber-Freudenberger2Eike Luedeling3Department of Horticultural Sciences, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 6, 53121 Bonn, Germany; Corresponding author.Department of Horticultural Sciences, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 6, 53121 Bonn, Germany; Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, GermanyCenter for Development Research, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, GermanyDepartment of Horticultural Sciences, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 6, 53121 Bonn, GermanyFarmers’ agricultural practices in Vietnam are highly sensitive to weather, climate variability and climate change. The lack of timely and actionable climate-informed agricultural advice leads to significant input and yield losses, which can render investments in farming unprofitable. Development organizations in Vietnam have provided agro-climate services (ACS) to smallholder farmers on a limited scale. They advocate for the government to consider upscaling the provision of ACS, but a large-scale roll-out could strain the government’s financial and human resources. Evaluating the merits of climate services is challenging, because weather and climate risks, as well as the benefits that information services may provide, cannot be derived from robust existing datasets or predicted with certainty.CARE in Vietnam, a non-government organization, has provided ACS in two communes in Dien Bien District since 2015 and they expect to upscale their intervention. In this study, we used a decision analysis approach to develop conceptual models and probabilistic simulations to conduct an ex-ante cost-benefit analysis of four candidate interventions aiming to scale ACS in Dien Bien District, Vietnam. Our analysis was conducted in collaboration with CARE in Vietnam’s project staff, Dien Bien government staff and other experts. Our simulation results indicated a very high chance (98.35–99.81%) of the ACS interventions providing net benefits. With 90% confidence, investments in ACS would return benefits between 1.45 and 16.02 USD per 1 USD invested. Our framework offers a foundation for the design, implementation and evaluation of ACS. The cost-benefit analysis provides support to the government’s potential decision-making process and suggests replacing deterministic with probabilistic approaches when analyzing uncertain and complex decisions in development planning.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000310Cost-benefit analysisUncertaintyProbabilistic modelingDecision analysisAgricultureClimate change |
| spellingShingle | Thi Thu Giang Luu Cory Whitney Lisa Biber-Freudenberger Eike Luedeling Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam Climate Services Cost-benefit analysis Uncertainty Probabilistic modeling Decision analysis Agriculture Climate change |
| title | Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam |
| title_full | Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam |
| title_fullStr | Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam |
| title_short | Decision analysis of agro-climate service scaling – A case study in Dien Bien District, Vietnam |
| title_sort | decision analysis of agro climate service scaling a case study in dien bien district vietnam |
| topic | Cost-benefit analysis Uncertainty Probabilistic modeling Decision analysis Agriculture Climate change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000310 |
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