Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.

Outbreaks of H5-type highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry have been reported in various parts of the world. To respond to these continuous threats, numerous surveillance programs have been applied to poultry raising facilities as well as wild birds. In Korea, a surveillance program wa...

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Main Authors: Hachung Yoon, Ilseob Lee, Hyeonjeong Kang, Kyung-Sook Kim, Eunesub Lee
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2022-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269311
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author Hachung Yoon
Ilseob Lee
Hyeonjeong Kang
Kyung-Sook Kim
Eunesub Lee
author_facet Hachung Yoon
Ilseob Lee
Hyeonjeong Kang
Kyung-Sook Kim
Eunesub Lee
author_sort Hachung Yoon
collection DOAJ
description Outbreaks of H5-type highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry have been reported in various parts of the world. To respond to these continuous threats, numerous surveillance programs have been applied to poultry raising facilities as well as wild birds. In Korea, a surveillance program was developed aimed at providing a preemptive response to possible outbreaks at poultry farms. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively present the risks of HPAI evaluated by this program in relation to actual outbreak farms during the epidemic of 2020/2021. A deep learning-based risk assessment program was trained based on the pattern of livestock vehicles visiting poultry farms and HPAI outbreaks to calculate the risk of HPAI for farms linked by the movement of livestock vehicles (such farms are termed "epidemiologically linked farms"). A total of 7,984 risk assessments were conducted, and the results were categorized into four groups. The proportion of the highest risk level was greater in duck farms (13.6%) than in chicken farms (8.8%). Among the duck farms, the proportion of the highest risk level was much greater in farms where breeder ducks were raised (accounting for 26.4% of the risk) than in farms where ducks were raised to obtain meat (12.8% of the risk). A higher risk level was also found in cases where the species of the outbreak farm and epidemiologically linked farms were the same (proportion of the highest risk level = 13.2%) compared to that when the species between the two farms were different (7.9%). The overall proportion of farms with HPAI outbreaks among epidemiologically linked farms (attack rate, AR) was 1.7% as HPAI was confirmed on 67 of the 3,883 epidemiologically linked farms. The AR was highest for breeder ducks (15.3%) among duck farms and laying hens (4.8%) among chicken farms. The AR of the pairs where livestock vehicles entered the inner farm area was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 1.4-2.9) higher than that of all pairs. With the risk information provided, customized preventive measures can be implemented for each epidemiologically linked farm. The use of this risk assessment program would be a good example of information-based surveillance and support decision-making for controlling animal diseases.
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spelling doaj.art-110a54c5268a430f9d6cf799723f2c162022-12-22T03:03:23ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01176e026931110.1371/journal.pone.0269311Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.Hachung YoonIlseob LeeHyeonjeong KangKyung-Sook KimEunesub LeeOutbreaks of H5-type highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry have been reported in various parts of the world. To respond to these continuous threats, numerous surveillance programs have been applied to poultry raising facilities as well as wild birds. In Korea, a surveillance program was developed aimed at providing a preemptive response to possible outbreaks at poultry farms. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively present the risks of HPAI evaluated by this program in relation to actual outbreak farms during the epidemic of 2020/2021. A deep learning-based risk assessment program was trained based on the pattern of livestock vehicles visiting poultry farms and HPAI outbreaks to calculate the risk of HPAI for farms linked by the movement of livestock vehicles (such farms are termed "epidemiologically linked farms"). A total of 7,984 risk assessments were conducted, and the results were categorized into four groups. The proportion of the highest risk level was greater in duck farms (13.6%) than in chicken farms (8.8%). Among the duck farms, the proportion of the highest risk level was much greater in farms where breeder ducks were raised (accounting for 26.4% of the risk) than in farms where ducks were raised to obtain meat (12.8% of the risk). A higher risk level was also found in cases where the species of the outbreak farm and epidemiologically linked farms were the same (proportion of the highest risk level = 13.2%) compared to that when the species between the two farms were different (7.9%). The overall proportion of farms with HPAI outbreaks among epidemiologically linked farms (attack rate, AR) was 1.7% as HPAI was confirmed on 67 of the 3,883 epidemiologically linked farms. The AR was highest for breeder ducks (15.3%) among duck farms and laying hens (4.8%) among chicken farms. The AR of the pairs where livestock vehicles entered the inner farm area was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 1.4-2.9) higher than that of all pairs. With the risk information provided, customized preventive measures can be implemented for each epidemiologically linked farm. The use of this risk assessment program would be a good example of information-based surveillance and support decision-making for controlling animal diseases.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269311
spellingShingle Hachung Yoon
Ilseob Lee
Hyeonjeong Kang
Kyung-Sook Kim
Eunesub Lee
Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.
PLoS ONE
title Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.
title_full Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.
title_fullStr Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.
title_full_unstemmed Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.
title_short Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.
title_sort big data based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020 2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in korea
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269311
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