Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe
Abstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions with seemingly mild winters. The study aimed to establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53675-z |
| _version_ | 1797274699625922560 |
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| author | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak Dariusz Walkowiak Jarosław Walkowiak |
| author_facet | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak Dariusz Walkowiak Jarosław Walkowiak |
| author_sort | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions with seemingly mild winters. The study aimed to establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences in vulnerability to low temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000–2019) were matched with meteorological data to determine for each region vulnerability to temperature decrease and the optimal temperature with lowest mortality. Regression models were developed to generalize and explain these findings considering regional temperature characteristics. Optimal temperature could be predicted based on local average summer temperature (R2 = 85.6%). Regional vulnerability to temperature decrease could be explained by combination of winter and summer temperatures (R2 = 86.1%). Regions with warm winters and cold summers showed the highest vulnerability to decrease of temperature during winter. Contrary to theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable to Scandinavia. The southern edges of Europe demonstrated serious low temperature vulnerability to decreased temperatures, even if temperature was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests that the observed connection primarily reflects the modulation of the length of respiratory virus infection seasons by climate conditions, counterbalanced by varying levels of acquired immunity and the presence of heatwaves eliminating the most frail individuals. Thus, relatively low vulnerability and a flat mortality cycle in countries with harsh climates paradoxically imply the presence of threats throughout the whole year. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:03:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-111bfc02ce69429b826cb3eb78d050ad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:03:00Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-111bfc02ce69429b826cb3eb78d050ad2024-03-05T19:01:55ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-02-011411810.1038/s41598-024-53675-zExploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in EuropeMarcin Piotr Walkowiak0Dariusz Walkowiak1Jarosław Walkowiak2Department of Preventive Medicine, Poznan University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Organization and Management in Health Care, Poznan University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Metabolic Diseases, Poznan University of Medical SciencesAbstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions with seemingly mild winters. The study aimed to establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences in vulnerability to low temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000–2019) were matched with meteorological data to determine for each region vulnerability to temperature decrease and the optimal temperature with lowest mortality. Regression models were developed to generalize and explain these findings considering regional temperature characteristics. Optimal temperature could be predicted based on local average summer temperature (R2 = 85.6%). Regional vulnerability to temperature decrease could be explained by combination of winter and summer temperatures (R2 = 86.1%). Regions with warm winters and cold summers showed the highest vulnerability to decrease of temperature during winter. Contrary to theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable to Scandinavia. The southern edges of Europe demonstrated serious low temperature vulnerability to decreased temperatures, even if temperature was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests that the observed connection primarily reflects the modulation of the length of respiratory virus infection seasons by climate conditions, counterbalanced by varying levels of acquired immunity and the presence of heatwaves eliminating the most frail individuals. Thus, relatively low vulnerability and a flat mortality cycle in countries with harsh climates paradoxically imply the presence of threats throughout the whole year.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53675-z |
| spellingShingle | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak Dariusz Walkowiak Jarosław Walkowiak Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe Scientific Reports |
| title | Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe |
| title_full | Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe |
| title_short | Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe |
| title_sort | exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in europe |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53675-z |
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