Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming
Given the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phas...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f |
| _version_ | 1797747435264540672 |
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| author | Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky |
| author_facet | Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky |
| author_sort | Donglin Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Given the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study, for the first time, investigates external anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on historical (1921–2005) near-surface permafrost change in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing produces a significant decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost distribution at a rate of 0.46 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 , similar to observations and the historical simulation (ALL). Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing yields an increase in near-surface permafrost distribution area at a rate of 0.25 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 . Under natural (NAT) forcing, there is a weak trend and distinct decadal variability in near-surface permafrost area. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are detectable in the observed change in historical near-surface permafrost area, but the effects of NAT and AA forcings are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. This indicates that the observed near-surface permafrost degradation can be largely attributed to GHG-induced warming, which has decreased the near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 0. 21 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 on average over the study period, according to the attribution analysis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:32Z |
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| id | doaj.art-114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:32Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf2023-08-09T15:09:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115808404010.1088/1748-9326/ab926fAttribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warmingDonglin Guo0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3078-6556Jianqi Sun1Huixin Li2Tingjun Zhang3Vladimir E Romanovsky4Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaNansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks , Fairbanks AK 99775 AK, United States of AmericaGiven the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study, for the first time, investigates external anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on historical (1921–2005) near-surface permafrost change in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing produces a significant decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost distribution at a rate of 0.46 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 , similar to observations and the historical simulation (ALL). Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing yields an increase in near-surface permafrost distribution area at a rate of 0.25 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 . Under natural (NAT) forcing, there is a weak trend and distinct decadal variability in near-surface permafrost area. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are detectable in the observed change in historical near-surface permafrost area, but the effects of NAT and AA forcings are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. This indicates that the observed near-surface permafrost degradation can be largely attributed to GHG-induced warming, which has decreased the near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 0. 21 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 on average over the study period, according to the attribution analysis.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926fpermafrostanthropogenic forcingnatural forcingair temperature |
| spellingShingle | Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming Environmental Research Letters permafrost anthropogenic forcing natural forcing air temperature |
| title | Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
| title_full | Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
| title_short | Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
| title_sort | attribution of historical near surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
| topic | permafrost anthropogenic forcing natural forcing air temperature |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f |
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