The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal
In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd Ja...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2022043?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1818284395498307584 |
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| author | Beatriz Machado Liliana Antunes Constantino Caetano João F. Pereira Baltazar Nunes Paula Patrício M. Luísa Morgado |
| author_facet | Beatriz Machado Liliana Antunes Constantino Caetano João F. Pereira Baltazar Nunes Paula Patrício M. Luísa Morgado |
| author_sort | Beatriz Machado |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T00:52:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-118ec180e69142058beb766e3ac4ac8b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T00:52:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-118ec180e69142058beb766e3ac4ac8b2022-12-22T00:04:53ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182022-01-0119193695210.3934/mbe.2022043The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in PortugalBeatriz Machado0Liliana Antunes1Constantino Caetano2João F. Pereira3Baltazar Nunes4Paula Patrício5M. Luísa Morgado61. School of Science and Technology, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, Vila Real 5001-801, Portugal2. Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon 1649-016, Portugal2. Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon 1649-016, Portugal5. Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal 1. School of Science and Technology, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, Vila Real 5001-801, Portugal 2. Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon 1649-016, Portugal2. Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Lisbon 1649-016, Portugal 3. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa4. Center for Mathematics and Applications (CMA) and Department of Mathematics, NOVA School of Science and Technology, FCT NOVA, Quinta da Torre, Caparica 2829-516, Portugal1. School of Science and Technology, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, Vila Real 5001-801, Portugal5. Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1049-001, PortugalIn this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2022043?viewType=HTMLcovid-19vaccinationepidemiologyseir model |
| spellingShingle | Beatriz Machado Liliana Antunes Constantino Caetano João F. Pereira Baltazar Nunes Paula Patrício M. Luísa Morgado The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering covid-19 vaccination epidemiology seir model |
| title | The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal |
| title_full | The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal |
| title_fullStr | The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal |
| title_short | The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal |
| title_sort | impact of vaccination on the evolution of covid 19 in portugal |
| topic | covid-19 vaccination epidemiology seir model |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2022043?viewType=HTML |
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