Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study
In recent decades, the world’s population is progressively shifting towards coastal areas, and it is estimated that it could reach 1 billion by 2050. On the other hand, meteocean forcings show increasing modification in terms of the occurrence and frequency of energetic events related to climate cha...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-09-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/9/1786 |
| _version_ | 1797579347534544896 |
|---|---|
| author | Davide Pasquali Antonello Bruschi Iolanda Lisi Marcello Di Risio |
| author_facet | Davide Pasquali Antonello Bruschi Iolanda Lisi Marcello Di Risio |
| author_sort | Davide Pasquali |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, the world’s population is progressively shifting towards coastal areas, and it is estimated that it could reach 1 billion by 2050. On the other hand, meteocean forcings show increasing modification in terms of the occurrence and frequency of energetic events related to climate change trends. Then, the definition of adaptation strategies is crucial to managing coastal areas, especially in the most densely populated or highly valued tourist and environmental areas. Meaningful long-term strategies should then be based on quantitative estimation of future scenarios in a changing climate. Although most of the studies in the literature focus on extreme events, this paper aims to assess, through synthetic indicators, whether and how average and mild energy conditions related to wave climate will vary considering the current situation compared to future projections. The study is based on the analysis of wave data. The projection of average and mild energy conditions can indeed influence, just for example, the long-term morphodynamics of sandy beaches and the quality of bathing waters. Data extracted from the Copernicus database are considered. The methodology has been applied to the case of Sardinia island at a regional scale. Then, the aim of this paper is twofold: on the one hand, a method is proposed to evaluate the variation of average and mild wave conditions; on the other hand, it aims to apply the method to the case study of the Sardinia coastal area to highlight its feasibility. Results confirm that variations are expected. In the analyzed case study, it emerges that, on average, the long-term evolution of the wave climate shows a tendency toward intensification, while a decrease in the frequency of calm conditions is estimated. The average annual number of events undergoes an increase. Moreover, changes in wave directional sectors are observed, which, from being unimodal, are estimated to exhibit bimodal characteristics in particular on the west coast of the island. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:34:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-11ca1e753d2d45c4b4fbc233b2b7f55f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:34:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-11ca1e753d2d45c4b4fbc233b2b7f55f2023-11-19T11:27:21ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122023-09-01119178610.3390/jmse11091786Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case StudyDavide Pasquali0Antonello Bruschi1Iolanda Lisi2Marcello Di Risio3Environmental and Maritime Hydraulic Laboratory (LIAM), Department of Civil, Construction-Architectural and Environmental Engineering (DICEAA), University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, ItalyItalian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), 00144 Rome, ItalyItalian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), 00144 Rome, ItalyEnvironmental and Maritime Hydraulic Laboratory (LIAM), Department of Civil, Construction-Architectural and Environmental Engineering (DICEAA), University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, ItalyIn recent decades, the world’s population is progressively shifting towards coastal areas, and it is estimated that it could reach 1 billion by 2050. On the other hand, meteocean forcings show increasing modification in terms of the occurrence and frequency of energetic events related to climate change trends. Then, the definition of adaptation strategies is crucial to managing coastal areas, especially in the most densely populated or highly valued tourist and environmental areas. Meaningful long-term strategies should then be based on quantitative estimation of future scenarios in a changing climate. Although most of the studies in the literature focus on extreme events, this paper aims to assess, through synthetic indicators, whether and how average and mild energy conditions related to wave climate will vary considering the current situation compared to future projections. The study is based on the analysis of wave data. The projection of average and mild energy conditions can indeed influence, just for example, the long-term morphodynamics of sandy beaches and the quality of bathing waters. Data extracted from the Copernicus database are considered. The methodology has been applied to the case of Sardinia island at a regional scale. Then, the aim of this paper is twofold: on the one hand, a method is proposed to evaluate the variation of average and mild wave conditions; on the other hand, it aims to apply the method to the case study of the Sardinia coastal area to highlight its feasibility. Results confirm that variations are expected. In the analyzed case study, it emerges that, on average, the long-term evolution of the wave climate shows a tendency toward intensification, while a decrease in the frequency of calm conditions is estimated. The average annual number of events undergoes an increase. Moreover, changes in wave directional sectors are observed, which, from being unimodal, are estimated to exhibit bimodal characteristics in particular on the west coast of the island.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/9/1786wave climatemetocean forcingsCopernicus databaseSardiniaclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Davide Pasquali Antonello Bruschi Iolanda Lisi Marcello Di Risio Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study Journal of Marine Science and Engineering wave climate metocean forcings Copernicus database Sardinia climate change |
| title | Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study |
| title_full | Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study |
| title_fullStr | Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study |
| title_short | Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study |
| title_sort | wave forcing assessment at regional scale in a climate change scenario the sardinia case study |
| topic | wave climate metocean forcings Copernicus database Sardinia climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/9/1786 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidepasquali waveforcingassessmentatregionalscaleinaclimatechangescenariothesardiniacasestudy AT antonellobruschi waveforcingassessmentatregionalscaleinaclimatechangescenariothesardiniacasestudy AT iolandalisi waveforcingassessmentatregionalscaleinaclimatechangescenariothesardiniacasestudy AT marcellodirisio waveforcingassessmentatregionalscaleinaclimatechangescenariothesardiniacasestudy |