Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China
Abstract Background The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. Methods A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2018-04-01
|
| Series: | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6 |
| _version_ | 1811299015386464256 |
|---|---|
| author | Tian-Mu Chen Shao-Sen Zhang Jun Feng Zhi-Gui Xia Chun-Hai Luo Xu-Can Zeng Xiang-Rui Guo Zu-Rui Lin Hong-Ning Zhou Shui-Sen Zhou |
| author_facet | Tian-Mu Chen Shao-Sen Zhang Jun Feng Zhi-Gui Xia Chun-Hai Luo Xu-Can Zeng Xiang-Rui Guo Zu-Rui Lin Hong-Ning Zhou Shui-Sen Zhou |
| author_sort | Tian-Mu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. Methods A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. Results Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0–5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000–0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38–71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ 2 = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048–0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. Conclusions A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:28:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-123079df286f4faa8f916af97bf27195 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2049-9957 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T06:28:56Z |
| publishDate | 2018-04-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| spelling | doaj.art-123079df286f4faa8f916af97bf271952022-12-22T02:58:14ZengBMCInfectious Diseases of Poverty2049-99572018-04-017111110.1186/s40249-018-0423-6Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, ChinaTian-Mu Chen0Shao-Sen Zhang1Jun Feng2Zhi-Gui Xia3Chun-Hai Luo4Xu-Can Zeng5Xiang-Rui Guo6Zu-Rui Lin7Hong-Ning Zhou8Shui-Sen Zhou9Department of Malaria, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Malaria, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Malaria, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Malaria, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionYunnan Institute of Parasitic DiseasesYunnan Institute of Parasitic DiseasesYingjiang County Center for Disease Control and PreventionYunnan Institute of Parasitic DiseasesYunnan Institute of Parasitic DiseasesDepartment of Malaria, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionAbstract Background The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. Methods A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. Results Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0–5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000–0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38–71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ 2 = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048–0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. Conclusions A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6MalariaImportationVulnerabilityMobile populationIndividual-based model |
| spellingShingle | Tian-Mu Chen Shao-Sen Zhang Jun Feng Zhi-Gui Xia Chun-Hai Luo Xu-Can Zeng Xiang-Rui Guo Zu-Rui Lin Hong-Ning Zhou Shui-Sen Zhou Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China Infectious Diseases of Poverty Malaria Importation Vulnerability Mobile population Individual-based model |
| title | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
| title_full | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
| title_fullStr | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
| title_short | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
| title_sort | mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability a modelling study in the china myanmar border region of yunnan province china |
| topic | Malaria Importation Vulnerability Mobile population Individual-based model |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tianmuchen mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT shaosenzhang mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT junfeng mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT zhiguixia mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT chunhailuo mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT xucanzeng mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT xiangruiguo mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT zuruilin mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT hongningzhou mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina AT shuisenzhou mobilepopulationdynamicsandmalariavulnerabilityamodellingstudyinthechinamyanmarborderregionofyunnanprovincechina |