Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations
In recent decades, Arctic-amplified warming and sea-ice loss coincided with a prolonged wintertime Eurasian cooling trend. This observed Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern has occasionally been attributed to sea-ice forced changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, implying an anthropogenic c...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40 |
| _version_ | 1797323960256299008 |
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| author | Zachary Kaufman Nicole Feldl Claudie Beaulieu |
| author_facet | Zachary Kaufman Nicole Feldl Claudie Beaulieu |
| author_sort | Zachary Kaufman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, Arctic-amplified warming and sea-ice loss coincided with a prolonged wintertime Eurasian cooling trend. This observed Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern has occasionally been attributed to sea-ice forced changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, implying an anthropogenic cause. However, comprehensive climate change simulations do not produce Eurasian cooling, instead suggesting a role for unforced atmospheric variability. This study seeks to clarify the source of this model-observation discrepancy by developing a statistical approach that enables direct comparison of Arctic-midlatitude interactions. In both historical simulations and observations, we first identify Ural blocking as the primary causal driver of sea ice, temperature, and circulation anomalies consistent with the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern. Next, we quantify distinct transient responses to this Ural blocking, which explain the model-observation discrepancy in historical Eurasian temperature. Observed 1988–2012 Eurasian cooling occurs in response to a pronounced positive trend in Ural sea-level pressure, temporarily masking long-term midlatitude warming. This observed sea-level pressure trend lies at the outer edge of simulated variability in a fully coupled large ensemble, where smaller sea-level pressure trends have little impact on the ensemble mean temperature trend over Eurasia. Accounting for these differences bring observed and simulated trends into remarkable agreement. Finally, we quantify the influence of sea-ice loss on the magnitude of the observed Ural sea-level pressure trend, an effect that is absent in historical simulations. These results illustrate that sea-ice loss and tropospheric variability can both play a role in producing Eurasian cooling. Furthermore, by conducting a direct model-observation comparison, we reveal a key difference in the causal structures characterizing the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern, which will guide ongoing efforts to explain the lack of Eurasian cooling in climate change simulations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T05:36:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-124756fbe19b47c590fab83ca498766f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2752-5295 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T05:36:32Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-124756fbe19b47c590fab83ca498766f2024-02-05T15:51:39ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Climate2752-52952024-01-013101500610.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observationsZachary Kaufman0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6734-915XNicole Feldl1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2631-1419Claudie Beaulieu2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0013-5357Earth System Science Department, Stanford University , Stanford, CA, United States of America; Earth and Planetary Science Department, University of California, Santa Cruz , CA, United States of AmericaEarth and Planetary Science Department, University of California, Santa Cruz , CA, United States of AmericaOcean Science Department, University of California, Santa Cruz , CA, United States of AmericaIn recent decades, Arctic-amplified warming and sea-ice loss coincided with a prolonged wintertime Eurasian cooling trend. This observed Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern has occasionally been attributed to sea-ice forced changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, implying an anthropogenic cause. However, comprehensive climate change simulations do not produce Eurasian cooling, instead suggesting a role for unforced atmospheric variability. This study seeks to clarify the source of this model-observation discrepancy by developing a statistical approach that enables direct comparison of Arctic-midlatitude interactions. In both historical simulations and observations, we first identify Ural blocking as the primary causal driver of sea ice, temperature, and circulation anomalies consistent with the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern. Next, we quantify distinct transient responses to this Ural blocking, which explain the model-observation discrepancy in historical Eurasian temperature. Observed 1988–2012 Eurasian cooling occurs in response to a pronounced positive trend in Ural sea-level pressure, temporarily masking long-term midlatitude warming. This observed sea-level pressure trend lies at the outer edge of simulated variability in a fully coupled large ensemble, where smaller sea-level pressure trends have little impact on the ensemble mean temperature trend over Eurasia. Accounting for these differences bring observed and simulated trends into remarkable agreement. Finally, we quantify the influence of sea-ice loss on the magnitude of the observed Ural sea-level pressure trend, an effect that is absent in historical simulations. These results illustrate that sea-ice loss and tropospheric variability can both play a role in producing Eurasian cooling. Furthermore, by conducting a direct model-observation comparison, we reveal a key difference in the causal structures characterizing the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern, which will guide ongoing efforts to explain the lack of Eurasian cooling in climate change simulations.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40climate dynamicsArctic sea iceteleconnectionscausal inference |
| spellingShingle | Zachary Kaufman Nicole Feldl Claudie Beaulieu Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations Environmental Research: Climate climate dynamics Arctic sea ice teleconnections causal inference |
| title | Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations |
| title_full | Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations |
| title_fullStr | Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations |
| title_short | Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations |
| title_sort | warm arctic cold eurasia pattern driven by atmospheric blocking in models and observations |
| topic | climate dynamics Arctic sea ice teleconnections causal inference |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f40 |
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