Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier
Abstract El Niño events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Niño (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-11-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8 |
| _version_ | 1797453387465228288 |
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| author | Josef Ludescher Armin Bunde Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| author_facet | Josef Ludescher Armin Bunde Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| author_sort | Josef Ludescher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract El Niño events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Niño (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. Here we show that the difference of the sea surface temperature anomalies between the equatorial western and central Pacific in December enables an early forecast of the type of an upcoming El Niño (p-value < 10−3). Combined with a previously introduced climate network-based approach that allows to forecast the onset of an El Niño event, both the onset and type of an upcoming El Niño can be efficiently forecasted. The lead time is about 1 year and should allow early mitigation measures. In December 2022, the combined approach forecasted the onset of an EP event in 2023. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:22:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1287f49c6f34489badf3ba07cacfc119 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:22:05Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-1287f49c6f34489badf3ba07cacfc1192023-11-26T12:45:19ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-11-01611910.1038/s41612-023-00519-8Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrierJosef Ludescher0Armin Bunde1Hans Joachim Schellnhuber2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationInstitut für Theoretische Physik, Justus-Liebig-Universität GiessenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationAbstract El Niño events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Niño (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. Here we show that the difference of the sea surface temperature anomalies between the equatorial western and central Pacific in December enables an early forecast of the type of an upcoming El Niño (p-value < 10−3). Combined with a previously introduced climate network-based approach that allows to forecast the onset of an El Niño event, both the onset and type of an upcoming El Niño can be efficiently forecasted. The lead time is about 1 year and should allow early mitigation measures. In December 2022, the combined approach forecasted the onset of an EP event in 2023.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8 |
| spellingShingle | Josef Ludescher Armin Bunde Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier |
| title_full | Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier |
| title_short | Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier |
| title_sort | forecasting the el nino type well before the spring predictability barrier |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8 |
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