An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory
The conditions and the results of predicting epidemics of influenza in 1971-1985 years using a mathematical model of L.A. Rvachev and automated system developed at the Department of Epidemiology and General Cybernetics Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of the USSR (head Yu. G. Ivannik...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Journal Infectology
2014-09-01
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| Series: | Журнал инфектологии |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/120 |
| _version_ | 1797759096064049152 |
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| author | Yu. G. Ivannikov P. I. Ogarkov |
| author_facet | Yu. G. Ivannikov P. I. Ogarkov |
| author_sort | Yu. G. Ivannikov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The conditions and the results of predicting epidemics of influenza in 1971-1985 years using a mathematical model of L.A. Rvachev and automated system developed at the Department of Epidemiology and General Cybernetics Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of the USSR (head Yu. G. Ivannikov). It is shown that a forecast of daily epidemic influenza morbidity population of 100 cities in the country with a lead of up to 3 months was quite accurate both in terms of morbidity, and in time the peak of the epidemic. The causes of the difficulties inpredicting influenza epidemics in the end of 80s and 90s years, and gives recommendations for the resumption of the mathematical prediction of influenza epidemics in Russia at present. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T18:39:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-128f9c238a324367827a99b3c92c12ee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-6732 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T18:39:32Z |
| publishDate | 2014-09-01 |
| publisher | Journal Infectology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Журнал инфектологии |
| spelling | doaj.art-128f9c238a324367827a99b3c92c12ee2023-08-02T07:52:21ZrusJournal InfectologyЖурнал инфектологии2072-67322014-09-014310110610.22625/2072-6732-2012-4-3-101-106134An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big TerritoryYu. G. Ivannikov0P. I. Ogarkov1Военно-медицинская академия им. С.М. Кирова, Санкт-ПетербургВоенно-медицинская академия им. С.М. Кирова, Санкт-ПетербургThe conditions and the results of predicting epidemics of influenza in 1971-1985 years using a mathematical model of L.A. Rvachev and automated system developed at the Department of Epidemiology and General Cybernetics Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of the USSR (head Yu. G. Ivannikov). It is shown that a forecast of daily epidemic influenza morbidity population of 100 cities in the country with a lead of up to 3 months was quite accurate both in terms of morbidity, and in time the peak of the epidemic. The causes of the difficulties inpredicting influenza epidemics in the end of 80s and 90s years, and gives recommendations for the resumption of the mathematical prediction of influenza epidemics in Russia at present.https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/120эпидемия гриппаматематическое моделирование и прогнозирование эпидемийточность прогноза |
| spellingShingle | Yu. G. Ivannikov P. I. Ogarkov An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory Журнал инфектологии эпидемия гриппа математическое моделирование и прогнозирование эпидемий точность прогноза |
| title | An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory |
| title_full | An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory |
| title_fullStr | An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory |
| title_short | An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory |
| title_sort | experience of mathematical computing forecasting of the influenza epidemics for big territory |
| topic | эпидемия гриппа математическое моделирование и прогнозирование эпидемий точность прогноза |
| url | https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/120 |
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