Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy
Confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 have spread to more than 200 countries and regions of the world within a few months. Although the authorities report the number of new cases on daily basis, there remains a gap between the number of reported cases and actual number of cases in a population. On...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IEEE
2020-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9164964/ |
| _version_ | 1818723139836706816 |
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| author | Marina Bagic Babac Vedran Mornar |
| author_facet | Marina Bagic Babac Vedran Mornar |
| author_sort | Marina Bagic Babac |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Confirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 have spread to more than 200 countries and regions of the world within a few months. Although the authorities report the number of new cases on daily basis, there remains a gap between the number of reported cases and actual number of cases in a population. One way to bridge this gap is to gain more in-depth understanding of the disease. In this paper, we have used the recent findings about the clinical courses of inpatients with COVID-19 to reset the initial conditions of the epidemic process in order to estimate more realistic number of cases in the population. By translating the reported cases certain number of days earlier with regard to an average clinical course of the disease, we have obtained much higher number of cases, which suggests that the actual number of infected cases and death rate might have been higher than reported. Based on the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, this paper shows an estimate of the number of infected cases based on infection and removal rates from data during the pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T21:05:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-129ccbea50ef41d9b531f3fc8b1ebd07 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T21:05:47Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj.art-129ccbea50ef41d9b531f3fc8b1ebd072022-12-21T21:32:34ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362020-01-01814802114803010.1109/ACCESS.2020.30159239164964Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in ItalyMarina Bagic Babac0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4979-2216Vedran Mornar1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9611-8497Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, CroatiaConfirmed cases of the disease COVID-19 have spread to more than 200 countries and regions of the world within a few months. Although the authorities report the number of new cases on daily basis, there remains a gap between the number of reported cases and actual number of cases in a population. One way to bridge this gap is to gain more in-depth understanding of the disease. In this paper, we have used the recent findings about the clinical courses of inpatients with COVID-19 to reset the initial conditions of the epidemic process in order to estimate more realistic number of cases in the population. By translating the reported cases certain number of days earlier with regard to an average clinical course of the disease, we have obtained much higher number of cases, which suggests that the actual number of infected cases and death rate might have been higher than reported. Based on the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, this paper shows an estimate of the number of infected cases based on infection and removal rates from data during the pandemic.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9164964/Epidemic spreadinfection ratemathematical modelSIRCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2 |
| spellingShingle | Marina Bagic Babac Vedran Mornar Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy IEEE Access Epidemic spread infection rate mathematical model SIR COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
| title | Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy |
| title_full | Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy |
| title_fullStr | Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy |
| title_short | Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy |
| title_sort | resetting the initial conditions for calculating epidemic spread covid 19 outbreak in italy |
| topic | Epidemic spread infection rate mathematical model SIR COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9164964/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marinabagicbabac resettingtheinitialconditionsforcalculatingepidemicspreadcovid19outbreakinitaly AT vedranmornar resettingtheinitialconditionsforcalculatingepidemicspreadcovid19outbreakinitaly |