No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data
Abstract Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributin...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8 |
| _version_ | 1797811386336673792 |
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| author | Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley |
| author_facet | Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley |
| author_sort | Kimberly M. Fornace |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate R C , individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (R C < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (R C > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in R C estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:22:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-12bfbd26559f43998b51079cef14874d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:22:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-12bfbd26559f43998b51079cef14874d2023-06-04T11:32:48ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-06-011411810.1038/s41467-023-38476-8No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case dataKimberly M. Fornace0Hillary M. Topazian1Isobel Routledge2Syafie Asyraf3Jenarun Jelip4Kim A. Lindblade5Mohammad Saffree Jeffree6Pablo Ruiz Cuenca7Samir Bhatt8Kamruddin Ahmed9Azra C. Ghani10Chris Drakeley11School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of GlasgowMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia SabahVector-borne Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health MalaysiaGlobal Malaria Programme, World Health OrganizationFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia SabahFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia SabahMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineAbstract Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate R C , individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (R C < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (R C > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in R C estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8 |
| spellingShingle | Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data Nature Communications |
| title | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_full | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_fullStr | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_full_unstemmed | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_short | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_sort | no evidence of sustained nonzoonotic plasmodium knowlesi transmission in malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8 |
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