A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project
<p>Knowledge of how uncertainty propagates through a hydrological land surface modelling sequence is of crucial importance in the identification and characterisation of system weaknesses in the prediction of droughts and floods at global scale. We evaluated the performance of five state-of-the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/24/75/2020/hess-24-75-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818134965303377920 |
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| author | T. R. Marthews E. M. Blyth A. Martínez-de la Torre T. I. E. Veldkamp |
| author_facet | T. R. Marthews E. M. Blyth A. Martínez-de la Torre T. I. E. Veldkamp |
| author_sort | T. R. Marthews |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Knowledge of how uncertainty propagates through a hydrological land surface modelling sequence is of crucial importance in the identification and characterisation of system weaknesses in the prediction of droughts and floods at global scale. We evaluated the performance of five state-of-the-art global hydrological and land surface models in the context
of modelling extreme conditions (drought and flood). Uncertainty was
apportioned between the model used (model skill) and also the satellite-based
precipitation products used to drive the simulations (forcing data
variability) for extreme values of precipitation, surface runoff and
evaporation. We found in general that model simulations acted to augment
uncertainty rather than reduce it. In percentage terms, the increase in
uncertainty was most often less than the magnitude of the input data
uncertainty, but of comparable magnitude in many environments. Uncertainty
in predictions of evapotranspiration lows (drought) in dry environments was
especially high, indicating that these circumstances are a weak point in
current modelling system approaches. We also found that high data and model
uncertainty points for both ET lows and runoff lows were disproportionately
concentrated in the equatorial and southern tropics. Our results are
important for highlighting the relative robustness of satellite products in
the context of land surface simulations of extreme events and identifying
areas where improvements may be made in the consistency of simulation
models.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T09:17:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-12d38b4ebd7d4fd6ad3f390fc2d6be1d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T09:17:00Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-12d38b4ebd7d4fd6ad3f390fc2d6be1d2022-12-22T01:13:21ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382020-01-0124759210.5194/hess-24-75-2020A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> projectT. R. Marthews0E. M. Blyth1A. Martínez-de la Torre2T. I. E. Veldkamp3Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UKCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UKInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands<p>Knowledge of how uncertainty propagates through a hydrological land surface modelling sequence is of crucial importance in the identification and characterisation of system weaknesses in the prediction of droughts and floods at global scale. We evaluated the performance of five state-of-the-art global hydrological and land surface models in the context of modelling extreme conditions (drought and flood). Uncertainty was apportioned between the model used (model skill) and also the satellite-based precipitation products used to drive the simulations (forcing data variability) for extreme values of precipitation, surface runoff and evaporation. We found in general that model simulations acted to augment uncertainty rather than reduce it. In percentage terms, the increase in uncertainty was most often less than the magnitude of the input data uncertainty, but of comparable magnitude in many environments. Uncertainty in predictions of evapotranspiration lows (drought) in dry environments was especially high, indicating that these circumstances are a weak point in current modelling system approaches. We also found that high data and model uncertainty points for both ET lows and runoff lows were disproportionately concentrated in the equatorial and southern tropics. Our results are important for highlighting the relative robustness of satellite products in the context of land surface simulations of extreme events and identifying areas where improvements may be made in the consistency of simulation models.</p>https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/24/75/2020/hess-24-75-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | T. R. Marthews E. M. Blyth A. Martínez-de la Torre T. I. E. Veldkamp A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project |
| title_full | A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project |
| title_fullStr | A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project |
| title_full_unstemmed | A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project |
| title_short | A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the <i>eartH2Observe</i> project |
| title_sort | global scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the i earth2observe i project |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/24/75/2020/hess-24-75-2020.pdf |
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