Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks
The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO _2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome prod...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014009 |
| _version_ | 1797748538369638400 |
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| author | Stefanos Mystakidis Sonia I Seneviratne Nicolas Gruber Edouard L Davin |
| author_facet | Stefanos Mystakidis Sonia I Seneviratne Nicolas Gruber Edouard L Davin |
| author_sort | Stefanos Mystakidis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO _2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as simulated by models that participated in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). The constraints result in a ca. 40% lower response of NBP to climate change and a ca. 30% reduction in the strength of the CO _2 fertilization effect relative to the unconstrained multi-model mean. While the unconstrained CMIP5 models suggest an increase in the cumulative terrestrial carbon storage (477 PgC) in response to an idealized scenario of 1%/year atmospheric CO _2 increase, the constraints imply a ca. 19% smaller change. Overall, the applied emerging constraint approach offers a possibility to reduce uncertainties in the projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a key determinant of the future trajectory of atmospheric CO _2 concentration and resulting climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-12f4e08a620942a2bf3b628e4eb4f08a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:14Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-12f4e08a620942a2bf3b628e4eb4f08a2023-08-09T14:19:04ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112101400910.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014009Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacksStefanos Mystakidis0Sonia I Seneviratne1Nicolas Gruber2Edouard L Davin3Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science , ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science , ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Center for Climate Systems Modeling , ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandCenter for Climate Systems Modeling , ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics , ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science , ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandThe feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO _2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as simulated by models that participated in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). The constraints result in a ca. 40% lower response of NBP to climate change and a ca. 30% reduction in the strength of the CO _2 fertilization effect relative to the unconstrained multi-model mean. While the unconstrained CMIP5 models suggest an increase in the cumulative terrestrial carbon storage (477 PgC) in response to an idealized scenario of 1%/year atmospheric CO _2 increase, the constraints imply a ca. 19% smaller change. Overall, the applied emerging constraint approach offers a possibility to reduce uncertainties in the projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a key determinant of the future trajectory of atmospheric CO _2 concentration and resulting climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014009terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacksCMIP5 modelsemergent constraintsCO2 fertilizationevapotranspiration |
| spellingShingle | Stefanos Mystakidis Sonia I Seneviratne Nicolas Gruber Edouard L Davin Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks Environmental Research Letters terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks CMIP5 models emergent constraints CO2 fertilization evapotranspiration |
| title | Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks |
| title_full | Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks |
| title_fullStr | Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks |
| title_short | Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks |
| title_sort | hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks |
| topic | terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks CMIP5 models emergent constraints CO2 fertilization evapotranspiration |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014009 |
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