Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes
The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negativ...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Borntraeger
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0845 |
| _version_ | 1818329061370363904 |
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| author | Madlen Fischer Henning W. Rust Uwe Ulbrich |
| author_facet | Madlen Fischer Henning W. Rust Uwe Ulbrich |
| author_sort | Madlen Fischer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T12:42:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-13246aba6d554a2a9bc1456f6687213f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0941-2948 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T12:42:04Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Borntraeger |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| spelling | doaj.art-13246aba6d554a2a9bc1456f6687213f2022-12-21T23:45:36ZengBorntraegerMeteorologische Zeitschrift0941-29482018-01-0127131310.1127/metz/2017/084588248Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation ExtremesMadlen FischerHenning W. RustUwe UlbrichThe seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0845Extreme value theoryGeneralized Extreme Value (GEV) distributionseasonal variationsextreme precipitationrain gauge dataclimate |
| spellingShingle | Madlen Fischer Henning W. Rust Uwe Ulbrich Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes Meteorologische Zeitschrift Extreme value theory Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution seasonal variations extreme precipitation rain gauge data climate |
| title | Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes |
| title_full | Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes |
| title_short | Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes |
| title_sort | seasonal cycle in german daily precipitation extremes |
| topic | Extreme value theory Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution seasonal variations extreme precipitation rain gauge data climate |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0845 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT madlenfischer seasonalcycleingermandailyprecipitationextremes AT henningwrust seasonalcycleingermandailyprecipitationextremes AT uweulbrich seasonalcycleingermandailyprecipitationextremes |