METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW
<p>The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for sprin...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Laboratory of Complex Mapping, Faculty of Geography, MSU
2016-01-01
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| Series: | InterCarto. InterGIS |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://intercarto.msu.ru/jour/article/view/254 |
| _version_ | 1828847583278137344 |
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| author | A. S. Plotnikova D. V. Ershov P. P. Shulyak |
| author_facet | A. S. Plotnikova D. V. Ershov P. P. Shulyak |
| author_sort | A. S. Plotnikova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T22:13:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1333b4c6291549f5836c1f3d5fb059d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2414-9179 2414-9209 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T22:13:03Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Laboratory of Complex Mapping, Faculty of Geography, MSU |
| record_format | Article |
| series | InterCarto. InterGIS |
| spelling | doaj.art-1333b4c6291549f5836c1f3d5fb059d62022-12-22T00:10:11ZengLaboratory of Complex Mapping, Faculty of Geography, MSUInterCarto. InterGIS2414-91792414-92092016-01-0122114214810.24057/2414-9179-2016-1-22-142-148251METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAWA. S. Plotnikova0D. V. Ershov1P. P. Shulyak2Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of ScienciesCenter for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of ScienciesCenter for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies<p>The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.</p>http://intercarto.msu.ru/jour/article/view/254risk of forest firePoisson lawuse of satellite data on fires |
| spellingShingle | A. S. Plotnikova D. V. Ershov P. P. Shulyak METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW InterCarto. InterGIS risk of forest fire Poisson law use of satellite data on fires |
| title | METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW |
| title_full | METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW |
| title_fullStr | METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW |
| title_full_unstemmed | METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW |
| title_short | METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW |
| title_sort | method of forest fires probability assessment with poisson law |
| topic | risk of forest fire Poisson law use of satellite data on fires |
| url | http://intercarto.msu.ru/jour/article/view/254 |
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