Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river
Managing water security and sustaining ecosystem functions under future warming poses substantial challenges for semi-arid regions. The Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is particularly vulnerable given the considerable demand for water that underpins Australia’s agricultural production and contribution to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8d9 |
| _version_ | 1797673970416222208 |
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| author | P A Higgins J G Palmer M S Andersen C S M Turney F Johnson K Allen D Verdon-Kidd E R Cook |
| author_facet | P A Higgins J G Palmer M S Andersen C S M Turney F Johnson K Allen D Verdon-Kidd E R Cook |
| author_sort | P A Higgins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Managing water security and sustaining ecosystem functions under future warming poses substantial challenges for semi-arid regions. The Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is particularly vulnerable given the considerable demand for water that underpins Australia’s agricultural production and contribution to the national economy. Understanding future drought risk requires a robust assessment of natural variability in drought length, frequency, and magnitude. In the absence of long instrumental records, past drought characteristics can be inferred from paleo-records. We reconstruct over 800 years of Murray River streamflow using a suite of tree-ring chronologies from regions with strong climate teleconnections to the MDB. The reconstruction (1190–2000 CE) captures a broad spectrum of natural climate variability, not fully represented in instrumental records, contributing to an improved understanding of the occurrence rate of multi-year droughts. We found that the Millennium Drought, which occurred in the 2000s, was the most severe (joint duration, magnitude, and peak) during the 800-year reconstruction. The return period of this event is estimated to be ∼2500 years. However, droughts in the early-1200s were of a longer duration and similar magnitude to the Millennium Drought. We used climate models to assess how the occurrence probability of severe droughts might change in the future. Compared to the 800-year baseline, climate models project an increase in future drought severity. While the increase in drought occurrence is within the uncertainty range for most future projections, the driest forecast shows a significant increase in the likelihood of severe droughts compared to natural variability. Our results highlight the need for water management strategies not to rely solely on instrumental data as it may not fully represent current and future risks. Ensuring a resilient MDB under future warming will require a robust water security policy that captures a broader range of natural and anthropogenic variability than currently recognised. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:52:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-13387bed87f34c32b97117153509f384 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:52:14Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-13387bed87f34c32b97117153509f3842023-09-26T07:19:04ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-01181010401610.1088/1748-9326/acf8d9Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray riverP A Higgins0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6626-1401J G Palmer1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6665-4483M S Andersen2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7632-5491C S M Turney3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6733-0993F Johnson4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5708-1807K Allen5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8403-4552D Verdon-Kidd6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5334-4251E R Cook7Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; Division of Research, University of Technology Sydney , Sydney, AustraliaARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility, Mark Wainwright Analytical Centre, University of New South Wales , Sydney, AustraliaWater Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales , Sydney, AustraliaARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility, Mark Wainwright Analytical Centre, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; Division of Research, University of Technology Sydney , Sydney, AustraliaWater Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; ARC Training Centre in Data Science for Resources and Environments , Sydney, AustraliaARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia; Geography, Planning, Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania , Hobart, Australia; School of Agriculture, Food, and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne , Melbourne, AustraliaSchool of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle , Newcastle, AustraliaTree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University , New York, United States of AmericaManaging water security and sustaining ecosystem functions under future warming poses substantial challenges for semi-arid regions. The Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is particularly vulnerable given the considerable demand for water that underpins Australia’s agricultural production and contribution to the national economy. Understanding future drought risk requires a robust assessment of natural variability in drought length, frequency, and magnitude. In the absence of long instrumental records, past drought characteristics can be inferred from paleo-records. We reconstruct over 800 years of Murray River streamflow using a suite of tree-ring chronologies from regions with strong climate teleconnections to the MDB. The reconstruction (1190–2000 CE) captures a broad spectrum of natural climate variability, not fully represented in instrumental records, contributing to an improved understanding of the occurrence rate of multi-year droughts. We found that the Millennium Drought, which occurred in the 2000s, was the most severe (joint duration, magnitude, and peak) during the 800-year reconstruction. The return period of this event is estimated to be ∼2500 years. However, droughts in the early-1200s were of a longer duration and similar magnitude to the Millennium Drought. We used climate models to assess how the occurrence probability of severe droughts might change in the future. Compared to the 800-year baseline, climate models project an increase in future drought severity. While the increase in drought occurrence is within the uncertainty range for most future projections, the driest forecast shows a significant increase in the likelihood of severe droughts compared to natural variability. Our results highlight the need for water management strategies not to rely solely on instrumental data as it may not fully represent current and future risks. Ensuring a resilient MDB under future warming will require a robust water security policy that captures a broader range of natural and anthropogenic variability than currently recognised.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8d9tree ringsdroughtclimate modellingwater resources |
| spellingShingle | P A Higgins J G Palmer M S Andersen C S M Turney F Johnson K Allen D Verdon-Kidd E R Cook Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river Environmental Research Letters tree rings drought climate modelling water resources |
| title | Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river |
| title_full | Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river |
| title_fullStr | Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river |
| title_full_unstemmed | Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river |
| title_short | Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river |
| title_sort | examining past and projecting future an 800 year streamflow reconstruction of the australian murray river |
| topic | tree rings drought climate modelling water resources |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8d9 |
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