Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020
Abstract This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial auto...
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Nature Portfolio
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29373-7 |
| _version_ | 1811165908121419776 |
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| author | Xianyu Wei Junyu He Wenwu Yin Ricardo J. Soares Magalhaes Yanding Wang Yuanyong Xu Liang Wen Yehuan Sun Wenyi Zhang Hailong Sun |
| author_facet | Xianyu Wei Junyu He Wenwu Yin Ricardo J. Soares Magalhaes Yanding Wang Yuanyong Xu Liang Wen Yehuan Sun Wenyi Zhang Hailong Sun |
| author_sort | Xianyu Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space–time scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of the scrub typhus in Anhui Province. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to explore the association between scrub typhus and environmental variables. A total of 16,568 clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases were reported from 104 counties of 16 prefecture-level cities. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.32:1. And the proportion of cases over 65 years old was the highest, accounting for 33.8% of the total cases. Two primary and five secondary high-risk clusters were detected in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of Anhui Province. The number of cases in primary and secondary high-risk clusters accounted for 60.27% and 3.00%, respectively. Scrub typhus incidence in Anhui Province was positively correlated with the population density, normalized difference vegetation index, and several meteorological variables. The mean monthly sunshine duration with 3 lags (SSD_lag3), mean monthly ground surface temperature with 1 lag (GST_lag1), and mean monthly relative humidity with 3 lags (RHU_lag3) had the most significant association with increased cases of scrub typhus. Our findings indicate that public health interventions need to be focused on the elderly farmers in north of the Huai River in Anhui Province. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:43:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1343a64d477c4dc984fb6cd1bcddd700 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:43:49Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-1343a64d477c4dc984fb6cd1bcddd7002023-02-12T12:12:43ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-02-0113111410.1038/s41598-023-29373-7Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020Xianyu Wei0Junyu He1Wenwu Yin2Ricardo J. Soares Magalhaes3Yanding Wang4Yuanyong Xu5Liang Wen6Yehuan Sun7Wenyi Zhang8Hailong Sun9Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical UniversityOcean College, Zhejiang UniversityChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionSpatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of QueenslandChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and PreventionChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and PreventionChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical UniversityChinese PLA Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical UniversityAbstract This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space–time scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of the scrub typhus in Anhui Province. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to explore the association between scrub typhus and environmental variables. A total of 16,568 clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases were reported from 104 counties of 16 prefecture-level cities. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.32:1. And the proportion of cases over 65 years old was the highest, accounting for 33.8% of the total cases. Two primary and five secondary high-risk clusters were detected in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of Anhui Province. The number of cases in primary and secondary high-risk clusters accounted for 60.27% and 3.00%, respectively. Scrub typhus incidence in Anhui Province was positively correlated with the population density, normalized difference vegetation index, and several meteorological variables. The mean monthly sunshine duration with 3 lags (SSD_lag3), mean monthly ground surface temperature with 1 lag (GST_lag1), and mean monthly relative humidity with 3 lags (RHU_lag3) had the most significant association with increased cases of scrub typhus. Our findings indicate that public health interventions need to be focused on the elderly farmers in north of the Huai River in Anhui Province.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29373-7 |
| spellingShingle | Xianyu Wei Junyu He Wenwu Yin Ricardo J. Soares Magalhaes Yanding Wang Yuanyong Xu Liang Wen Yehuan Sun Wenyi Zhang Hailong Sun Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020 Scientific Reports |
| title | Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020 |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020 |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020 |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010–2020 |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in anhui province china 2010 2020 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29373-7 |
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