Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election
Climate change is a political as well as an environmental issue. Climate change beliefs are commonly associated with voting behaviour, but are they associated with swings in voting behaviour? The latter are arguably more important for election outcomes. This paper investigates the predictive power o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PsychOpen GOLD/ Leibniz Institute for Psychology
2015-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Social and Political Psychology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/376 |
| _version_ | 1797971601301438464 |
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| author | Rod McCrea Zoe Leviston Iain Walker Tung-Kai Shyy |
| author_facet | Rod McCrea Zoe Leviston Iain Walker Tung-Kai Shyy |
| author_sort | Rod McCrea |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is a political as well as an environmental issue. Climate change beliefs are commonly associated with voting behaviour, but are they associated with swings in voting behaviour? The latter are arguably more important for election outcomes. This paper investigates the predictive power of these beliefs on voting swings at the 2010 Australian federal election after controlling for a range of other related factors (demographic characteristics of voters, different worldviews about nature and the role of government, and the perceived opportunity cost of addressing climate change). Drawing on data from two nationally representative surveys of voters and data from the Australian Electoral Commission, this paper investigates relationships between climate change beliefs and voting swings at both the individual and electorate levels. At an individual level, a hypothetical 10% change in climate change beliefs was associated with a 2.6% swing from a conservative Coalition and a 2.0% swing toward Labor and 1.7% toward the Greens party, both left on the political spectrum. At the electorate level, this equates to a shift of 21 seats between the two main political parties (the Coalition and Labor) in Australia’s 150 seat parliament, after allocating Green preferences. Given many seats are marginal, even modest shifts in climate change beliefs can be associated with changes in electoral outcomes. Thus, climate change is expected to remain a politically contested issue in countries like Australia where political parties seek to distinguish themselves, in part, by their responses to climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T03:35:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-139d29c29e13426391f3333970cfafaf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2195-3325 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T03:35:13Z |
| publishDate | 2015-05-01 |
| publisher | PsychOpen GOLD/ Leibniz Institute for Psychology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Social and Political Psychology |
| spelling | doaj.art-139d29c29e13426391f3333970cfafaf2023-01-02T05:17:05ZengPsychOpen GOLD/ Leibniz Institute for PsychologyJournal of Social and Political Psychology2195-33252015-05-013112414110.5964/jspp.v3i1.376jspp.v3i1.376Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal ElectionRod McCrea0Zoe Leviston1Iain Walker2Tung-Kai Shyy3Land & Water Flagship, CSIRO, Brisbane, AustraliaLand & Water Flagship, CSIRO, Perth, AustraliaLand & Water Flagship, CSIRO, Perth, AustraliaSchool of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, AustraliaClimate change is a political as well as an environmental issue. Climate change beliefs are commonly associated with voting behaviour, but are they associated with swings in voting behaviour? The latter are arguably more important for election outcomes. This paper investigates the predictive power of these beliefs on voting swings at the 2010 Australian federal election after controlling for a range of other related factors (demographic characteristics of voters, different worldviews about nature and the role of government, and the perceived opportunity cost of addressing climate change). Drawing on data from two nationally representative surveys of voters and data from the Australian Electoral Commission, this paper investigates relationships between climate change beliefs and voting swings at both the individual and electorate levels. At an individual level, a hypothetical 10% change in climate change beliefs was associated with a 2.6% swing from a conservative Coalition and a 2.0% swing toward Labor and 1.7% toward the Greens party, both left on the political spectrum. At the electorate level, this equates to a shift of 21 seats between the two main political parties (the Coalition and Labor) in Australia’s 150 seat parliament, after allocating Green preferences. Given many seats are marginal, even modest shifts in climate change beliefs can be associated with changes in electoral outcomes. Thus, climate change is expected to remain a politically contested issue in countries like Australia where political parties seek to distinguish themselves, in part, by their responses to climate change.http://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/376climate changescepticismdenialpoliticselectionsvoting behaviour |
| spellingShingle | Rod McCrea Zoe Leviston Iain Walker Tung-Kai Shyy Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election Journal of Social and Political Psychology climate change scepticism denial politics elections voting behaviour |
| title | Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election |
| title_full | Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election |
| title_short | Climate Change Beliefs Count: Relationships With Voting Outcomes at the 2010 Australian Federal Election |
| title_sort | climate change beliefs count relationships with voting outcomes at the 2010 australian federal election |
| topic | climate change scepticism denial politics elections voting behaviour |
| url | http://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/376 |
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