Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran
Introduction: Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β) and basic reproductive number (R 0 ). Methods: Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and det...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications
2012-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Preventive Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ijpvmjournal.net/article.asp?issn=2008-7802;year=2012;volume=3;issue=6;spage=408;epage=413;aulast=Haghdoost |
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| author | AliAkbar Haghdoost Mohammad Reza Baneshi Farzaneh Zolala Sirous Farvahari Hossein Safizadeh |
| author_facet | AliAkbar Haghdoost Mohammad Reza Baneshi Farzaneh Zolala Sirous Farvahari Hossein Safizadeh |
| author_sort | AliAkbar Haghdoost |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β) and basic reproductive number (R 0 ).
Methods: Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and detected flu-like syndrome among students and their families in the first three months of academic year; October through December 2009. We estimated the probability of disease transmission within families (β) fitting random effects Poisson regression model. Moreover, R 0 within the school was computed based on the number of detected cases.
Results: In 452 students, 204 influenza-like syndromes were detected. The estimated β within families was 0.10; increasing one infectious member within each family was associated with 30% increase in this number. The estimated R 0 for the first month was 1.21 (95% C.I.: 0.99, 1.47); corresponding numbers for the first two and first three months were 1.28 (95% C.I.: 1.05, 1.54) and 1.32 (95% C.I.: 1.11, 1.59), respectively.
Conclusion: It seems that the dynamic transmission of H1N1 virus was more or less comparable with that in other seasonal species. Our findings showed that the virus mainly circulated among students within schools. In addition, it seems that the transmission rate within families was relatively high. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T07:54:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-13a697cb38a0407d8ba12278f0f3480b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2008-7802 2008-8213 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T07:54:22Z |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Preventive Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-13a697cb38a0407d8ba12278f0f3480b2022-12-22T02:55:27ZengWolters Kluwer Medknow PublicationsInternational Journal of Preventive Medicine2008-78022008-82132012-01-0136408413Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in IranAliAkbar HaghdoostMohammad Reza BaneshiFarzaneh ZolalaSirous FarvahariHossein SafizadehIntroduction: Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β) and basic reproductive number (R 0 ). Methods: Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and detected flu-like syndrome among students and their families in the first three months of academic year; October through December 2009. We estimated the probability of disease transmission within families (β) fitting random effects Poisson regression model. Moreover, R 0 within the school was computed based on the number of detected cases. Results: In 452 students, 204 influenza-like syndromes were detected. The estimated β within families was 0.10; increasing one infectious member within each family was associated with 30% increase in this number. The estimated R 0 for the first month was 1.21 (95% C.I.: 0.99, 1.47); corresponding numbers for the first two and first three months were 1.28 (95% C.I.: 1.05, 1.54) and 1.32 (95% C.I.: 1.11, 1.59), respectively. Conclusion: It seems that the dynamic transmission of H1N1 virus was more or less comparable with that in other seasonal species. Our findings showed that the virus mainly circulated among students within schools. In addition, it seems that the transmission rate within families was relatively high.http://www.ijpvmjournal.net/article.asp?issn=2008-7802;year=2012;volume=3;issue=6;spage=408;epage=413;aulast=HaghdoostBasic reproductive numberforce of infectionH1N1influenzaR 0 |
| spellingShingle | AliAkbar Haghdoost Mohammad Reza Baneshi Farzaneh Zolala Sirous Farvahari Hossein Safizadeh Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran International Journal of Preventive Medicine Basic reproductive number force of infection H1N1 influenza R 0 |
| title | Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran |
| title_full | Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran |
| title_short | Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran |
| title_sort | estimation of basic reproductive number of flu like syndrome in a primary school in iran |
| topic | Basic reproductive number force of infection H1N1 influenza R 0 |
| url | http://www.ijpvmjournal.net/article.asp?issn=2008-7802;year=2012;volume=3;issue=6;spage=408;epage=413;aulast=Haghdoost |
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