Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States
As global climate change progresses, the United States (US) is expected to experience warmer temperatures as well as more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires. Each year, these events cost dozens of lives and do billions of dollars' worth o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Human Dynamics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fhumd.2022.886545/full |
| _version_ | 1811185717036974080 |
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| author | Mahalia B. Clark Ephraim Nkonya Gillian L. Galford |
| author_facet | Mahalia B. Clark Ephraim Nkonya Gillian L. Galford |
| author_sort | Mahalia B. Clark |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As global climate change progresses, the United States (US) is expected to experience warmer temperatures as well as more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires. Each year, these events cost dozens of lives and do billions of dollars' worth of damage, but there has been limited research on how they influence human decisions about migration. Are people moving toward or away from areas most at risk from these climate threats? Here, we examine recent (2010–2020) trends in human migration across the US in relation to features of the natural landscape and climate, as well as frequencies of various natural hazards. Controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors, we found that people have moved away from areas most affected by heat waves and hurricanes, but toward areas most affected by wildfires. This relationship may suggest that, for many, the dangers of wildfires do not yet outweigh the perceived benefits of life in fire-prone areas. We also found that people have been moving toward metropolitan areas with relatively hot summers, a dangerous public health trend if mean and maximum temperatures continue to rise, as projected in most climate scenarios. These results have implications for policymakers and planners as they prepare strategies to mitigate climate change and natural hazards in areas attracting migrants. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:35:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-13ea3335d3d941be86878b21e96f3b69 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-2726 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:35:05Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Human Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-13ea3335d3d941be86878b21e96f3b692022-12-22T04:21:34ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Human Dynamics2673-27262022-12-01410.3389/fhumd.2022.886545886545Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United StatesMahalia B. Clark0Ephraim Nkonya1Gillian L. Galford2Gund Institute for Environment and Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United StatesRural Economy Branch, Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, United StatesGund Institute for Environment and Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United StatesAs global climate change progresses, the United States (US) is expected to experience warmer temperatures as well as more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires. Each year, these events cost dozens of lives and do billions of dollars' worth of damage, but there has been limited research on how they influence human decisions about migration. Are people moving toward or away from areas most at risk from these climate threats? Here, we examine recent (2010–2020) trends in human migration across the US in relation to features of the natural landscape and climate, as well as frequencies of various natural hazards. Controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors, we found that people have moved away from areas most affected by heat waves and hurricanes, but toward areas most affected by wildfires. This relationship may suggest that, for many, the dangers of wildfires do not yet outweigh the perceived benefits of life in fire-prone areas. We also found that people have been moving toward metropolitan areas with relatively hot summers, a dangerous public health trend if mean and maximum temperatures continue to rise, as projected in most climate scenarios. These results have implications for policymakers and planners as they prepare strategies to mitigate climate change and natural hazards in areas attracting migrants.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fhumd.2022.886545/fullhuman migrationnatural amenitiesclimate changeextreme weathernatural hazardsheat |
| spellingShingle | Mahalia B. Clark Ephraim Nkonya Gillian L. Galford Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States Frontiers in Human Dynamics human migration natural amenities climate change extreme weather natural hazards heat |
| title | Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States |
| title_full | Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States |
| title_fullStr | Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States |
| title_short | Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States |
| title_sort | flocking to fire how climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the united states |
| topic | human migration natural amenities climate change extreme weather natural hazards heat |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fhumd.2022.886545/full |
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