Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses
Extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes are often associated with weather systems, such as extratropical cyclones or blocks. However little is known about the decadal variation in the frequency of blocks and the activity of storm tracks and their relation to the two most important low-frequency...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Stockholm University Press
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1586236 |
| _version_ | 1818006988801441792 |
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| author | Marco Rohrer Stefan Brönnimann Olivia Martius Christoph C. Raible Martin Wild |
| author_facet | Marco Rohrer Stefan Brönnimann Olivia Martius Christoph C. Raible Martin Wild |
| author_sort | Marco Rohrer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes are often associated with weather systems, such as extratropical cyclones or blocks. However little is known about the decadal variation in the frequency of blocks and the activity of storm tracks and their relation to the two most important low-frequency oceanic modes of variability, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). To address this question, first the representation of blocks, storm tracks and Alpine circulation types is assessed in recently released centennial reanalyses during the 20th century. While interannual variability is represented similarly in all centennial reanalyses, the trends in particular for storm track activity before 1950 differ substantially between the NOAA 20th century reanalyses (20CR and 20CRv2c) and ECMWF centennial reanalyses (ERA-20C and CERA-20C). Therefore, the analysis of the connection between the AMO and PDO and the mid-latitudinal circulation is restricted to the period 1950–2010. All centennial reanalyses agree on the anomaly patterns associated with the different AMO/PDO phases. We find no significant connections except a southward (northward) shift of the storm track over the North Pacific as well as the North Atlantic during the positive (negative) PDO phase. The ERA-20CM atmosphere-only model ensemble captures this relationship, indicating that the ocean forces the atmosphere in the North Pacific. For studies investigating periods earlier than 1950, we recommend using several reanalysis products to ensure the robustness of results. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T05:09:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-14229278e3b842e281b532450a7c84bd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1600-0870 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T05:09:03Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Stockholm University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
| spelling | doaj.art-14229278e3b842e281b532450a7c84bd2022-12-22T02:10:36ZengStockholm University PressTellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography1600-08702019-01-0171110.1080/16000870.2019.15862361586236Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalysesMarco Rohrer0Stefan Brönnimann1Olivia Martius2Christoph C. Raible3Martin Wild4University of BernUniversity of BernUniversity of BernUniversity of BernETH ZurichExtreme weather events in the mid-latitudes are often associated with weather systems, such as extratropical cyclones or blocks. However little is known about the decadal variation in the frequency of blocks and the activity of storm tracks and their relation to the two most important low-frequency oceanic modes of variability, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). To address this question, first the representation of blocks, storm tracks and Alpine circulation types is assessed in recently released centennial reanalyses during the 20th century. While interannual variability is represented similarly in all centennial reanalyses, the trends in particular for storm track activity before 1950 differ substantially between the NOAA 20th century reanalyses (20CR and 20CRv2c) and ECMWF centennial reanalyses (ERA-20C and CERA-20C). Therefore, the analysis of the connection between the AMO and PDO and the mid-latitudinal circulation is restricted to the period 1950–2010. All centennial reanalyses agree on the anomaly patterns associated with the different AMO/PDO phases. We find no significant connections except a southward (northward) shift of the storm track over the North Pacific as well as the North Atlantic during the positive (negative) PDO phase. The ERA-20CM atmosphere-only model ensemble captures this relationship, indicating that the ocean forces the atmosphere in the North Pacific. For studies investigating periods earlier than 1950, we recommend using several reanalysis products to ensure the robustness of results.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1586236centennial reanalysesblockscyclonesamopdocirculation typesdecadal variability |
| spellingShingle | Marco Rohrer Stefan Brönnimann Olivia Martius Christoph C. Raible Martin Wild Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography centennial reanalyses blocks cyclones amo pdo circulation types decadal variability |
| title | Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses |
| title_full | Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses |
| title_fullStr | Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses |
| title_short | Decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses |
| title_sort | decadal variations of blocking and storm tracks in centennial reanalyses |
| topic | centennial reanalyses blocks cyclones amo pdo circulation types decadal variability |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1586236 |
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