Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments
Study region: Eight river catchments within Central Asia. Study focus: The limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821000082 |
| _version_ | 1818733630400233472 |
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| author | Iulii Didovets Anastasia Lobanova Valentina Krysanova Christoph Menz Zhanna Babagalieva Aliya Nurbatsina Nadejda Gavrilenko Vohid Khamidov Atabek Umirbekov Sobir Qodirov Dowletgeldi Muhyyew Fred Fokko Hattermann |
| author_facet | Iulii Didovets Anastasia Lobanova Valentina Krysanova Christoph Menz Zhanna Babagalieva Aliya Nurbatsina Nadejda Gavrilenko Vohid Khamidov Atabek Umirbekov Sobir Qodirov Dowletgeldi Muhyyew Fred Fokko Hattermann |
| author_sort | Iulii Didovets |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Eight river catchments within Central Asia. Study focus: The limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia to the end of the century by focusing on eight river catchments with diverse natural conditions located in different countries. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was setup, calibrated and validated for all selected catchments under study. Scenarios from five bias-corrected GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show an increase of mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the end of the century. The projected changes in annual precipitation indicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and to decrease in the Murghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller.The projected trends for river discharge are similar to those of precipitation, with an increase in the north and decrease in the south of the study region. Seasonal changes are characterized by a shift in the peak of river discharge up to one month, shortage of snow accumulation period, and reduction of discharge in summer months. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T23:52:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1448158486c348fa83b1903708cd87c8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T23:52:31Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-1448158486c348fa83b1903708cd87c82022-12-21T21:28:09ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182021-04-0134100779Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchmentsIulii Didovets0Anastasia Lobanova1Valentina Krysanova2Christoph Menz3Zhanna Babagalieva4Aliya Nurbatsina5Nadejda Gavrilenko6Vohid Khamidov7Atabek Umirbekov8Sobir Qodirov9Dowletgeldi Muhyyew10Fred Fokko Hattermann11Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany; Corresponding author.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, GermanyThe Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, Orbita 1, Almaty, KazakhstanScientific Research Center Republican State Enterprise “Kazhydromet”, Abay Ave 32, Almaty, 050000, KazakhstanCentre of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 72, 1st Bodomzor Yuli Str., Tashkent, 100052, UzbekistanAgency for Hydrometeorology The Committee of Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, 7, Shevchenko St., Dushanbe, 734025, TajikistanLeibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120, Halle, GermanyTashkent Institute of Engineers of Irrigation and Mechanization of Agriculture, 39 Kari Niyazov Street, Tashkent, 100000, UzbekistanHydrometeorology Service of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection of the Turkmenistan, Oguzkhan Ave. 203, Ashgabat, 744028, TurkmenistanPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473, Potsdam, GermanyStudy region: Eight river catchments within Central Asia. Study focus: The limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia to the end of the century by focusing on eight river catchments with diverse natural conditions located in different countries. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was setup, calibrated and validated for all selected catchments under study. Scenarios from five bias-corrected GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show an increase of mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the end of the century. The projected changes in annual precipitation indicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and to decrease in the Murghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller.The projected trends for river discharge are similar to those of precipitation, with an increase in the north and decrease in the south of the study region. Seasonal changes are characterized by a shift in the peak of river discharge up to one month, shortage of snow accumulation period, and reduction of discharge in summer months.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821000082Central AsiaClimate changeHydrological modellingAmu DaryaSyr DaryaSWIM |
| spellingShingle | Iulii Didovets Anastasia Lobanova Valentina Krysanova Christoph Menz Zhanna Babagalieva Aliya Nurbatsina Nadejda Gavrilenko Vohid Khamidov Atabek Umirbekov Sobir Qodirov Dowletgeldi Muhyyew Fred Fokko Hattermann Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Central Asia Climate change Hydrological modelling Amu Darya Syr Darya SWIM |
| title | Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments |
| title_full | Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments |
| title_fullStr | Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments |
| title_short | Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments |
| title_sort | central asian rivers under climate change impacts assessment in eight representative catchments |
| topic | Central Asia Climate change Hydrological modelling Amu Darya Syr Darya SWIM |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821000082 |
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