A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence
This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming ‘pause’ in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for ‘pauses’, both in t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 |
| _version_ | 1797748107976376320 |
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| author | James S Risbey Stephan Lewandowsky Kevin Cowtan Naomi Oreskes Stefan Rahmstorf Ari Jokimäki Grant Foster |
| author_facet | James S Risbey Stephan Lewandowsky Kevin Cowtan Naomi Oreskes Stefan Rahmstorf Ari Jokimäki Grant Foster |
| author_sort | James S Risbey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming ‘pause’ in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for ‘pauses’, both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a ‘pause’ defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval (‘broken’ trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a ‘pause’ in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-144f0b7e5a5b4b6ba1952b9438d13bb6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:16Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-144f0b7e5a5b4b6ba1952b9438d13bb62023-08-09T14:37:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-01131212300810.1088/1748-9326/aaf342A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidenceJames S Risbey0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3202-9142Stephan Lewandowsky1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1655-2013Kevin Cowtan2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-1437Naomi Oreskes3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6122-9843Stefan Rahmstorf4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6786-7723Ari Jokimäki5Grant Foster6CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart Tas, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart Tas, Australia; University of Bristol , Bristol, UK and University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, AustraliaDepartment of Chemistry, University of York , York, United KingdomDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University , Cambridge, MA, United States of AmericaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Potsdam, D14473, Germany; University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyIndependent researcher, Finland1 Noyes Ct, Augusta, ME 04330, United States of AmericaThis work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming ‘pause’ in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for ‘pauses’, both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a ‘pause’ defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval (‘broken’ trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a ‘pause’ in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342climate variabilityclimate trendstemperature fluctuationpause hiatus |
| spellingShingle | James S Risbey Stephan Lewandowsky Kevin Cowtan Naomi Oreskes Stefan Rahmstorf Ari Jokimäki Grant Foster A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence Environmental Research Letters climate variability climate trends temperature fluctuation pause hiatus |
| title | A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence |
| title_full | A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence |
| title_fullStr | A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence |
| title_full_unstemmed | A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence |
| title_short | A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence |
| title_sort | fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context reassessment and retrospective on the evidence |
| topic | climate variability climate trends temperature fluctuation pause hiatus |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 |
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