The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics
The work discusses the methodological basis and problems of modeling of world dynamics. Outlines approaches to the construction of a new simulation model of global development and the results of the simulation. The basis of the model building is laid empirical approach which based on the statistical...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Institute of Computer Science
2013-10-01
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| Series: | Компьютерные исследования и моделирование |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://crm.ics.org.ru/uploads/crmissues/crm_2013_5/13510.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818289062508756992 |
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| author | Sergey A. Makhov |
| author_facet | Sergey A. Makhov |
| author_sort | Sergey A. Makhov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The work discusses the methodological basis and problems of modeling of world dynamics. Outlines approaches to the construction of a new simulation model of global development and the results of the simulation. The basis of the model building is laid empirical approach which based on the statistical analysis of the main socio-economic indicators. On the basis of this analysis identified the main variables. Dynamic equations (in continuous differential form) were written for these variables. Dependencies between variables were selected based on the dynamics of indicators in the past and on the basis of expert assessments, while econometric techniques were used, based on regression analysis. Calculations have been performed for the resulting dynamic equations system, the results are presented in the form of a trajectories beam for those indicators that are directly observable, and for which statistics are available. Thus, it is possible to assess the scatter of the trajectories and understand the predictive capability of this model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T02:06:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-145a1388a98d41768930653f6486bb53 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-7633 2077-6853 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T02:06:18Z |
| publishDate | 2013-10-01 |
| publisher | Institute of Computer Science |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Компьютерные исследования и моделирование |
| spelling | doaj.art-145a1388a98d41768930653f6486bb532022-12-22T00:03:07ZrusInstitute of Computer ScienceКомпьютерные исследования и моделирование2076-76332077-68532013-10-015588389110.20537/2076-7633-2013-5-5-883-8912090The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamicsSergey A. MakhovThe work discusses the methodological basis and problems of modeling of world dynamics. Outlines approaches to the construction of a new simulation model of global development and the results of the simulation. The basis of the model building is laid empirical approach which based on the statistical analysis of the main socio-economic indicators. On the basis of this analysis identified the main variables. Dynamic equations (in continuous differential form) were written for these variables. Dependencies between variables were selected based on the dynamics of indicators in the past and on the basis of expert assessments, while econometric techniques were used, based on regression analysis. Calculations have been performed for the resulting dynamic equations system, the results are presented in the form of a trajectories beam for those indicators that are directly observable, and for which statistics are available. Thus, it is possible to assess the scatter of the trajectories and understand the predictive capability of this model.http://crm.ics.org.ru/uploads/crmissues/crm_2013_5/13510.pdfworld dynamicsregression analysisdifferential equations |
| spellingShingle | Sergey A. Makhov The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics Компьютерные исследования и моделирование world dynamics regression analysis differential equations |
| title | The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics |
| title_full | The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics |
| title_fullStr | The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics |
| title_short | The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics |
| title_sort | long term empirical macro model of world dynamics |
| topic | world dynamics regression analysis differential equations |
| url | http://crm.ics.org.ru/uploads/crmissues/crm_2013_5/13510.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sergeyamakhov thelongtermempiricalmacromodelofworlddynamics AT sergeyamakhov longtermempiricalmacromodelofworlddynamics |