Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021355?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1818826933915353088 |
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| author | Giacomo Albi Lorenzo Pareschi Mattia Zanella |
| author_facet | Giacomo Albi Lorenzo Pareschi Mattia Zanella |
| author_sort | Giacomo Albi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a SEIRD compartmental model with a social structure based on the age of individuals and stochastic inputs that account for data uncertainty, the effects of containment measures are introduced via an optimal control problem dependent on specific social activities, such as home, work, school, etc. Through a short time horizon approximation, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on social activities that allow us to assess the impact of selective relaxation of containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. After analyzing the effects of the various controls, results from different scenarios concerning the first wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations have been considered for each country. Numerical simulations show that a careful strategy of progressive relaxation of containment measures, such as that adopted by some governments, may be able to keep the epidemic under control by restarting various productive activities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T00:35:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-146cfc4439a8479681c79b2a5c314dda |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T00:35:32Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-146cfc4439a8479681c79b2a5c314dda2022-12-21T20:44:49ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182021-08-011867161719010.3934/mbe.2021355Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertaintyGiacomo Albi0Lorenzo Pareschi1Mattia Zanella21. Department of Computer Science, University of Verona, Str. Le Grazie 15, 37100 Verona, Italy2. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Via Machiavelli 35, 37131 Ferrara, Italy3. Department of Mathematics, University of Pavia, Via Ferrata, 5, 27100 Pavia, ItalyAfter the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a SEIRD compartmental model with a social structure based on the age of individuals and stochastic inputs that account for data uncertainty, the effects of containment measures are introduced via an optimal control problem dependent on specific social activities, such as home, work, school, etc. Through a short time horizon approximation, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on social activities that allow us to assess the impact of selective relaxation of containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. After analyzing the effects of the various controls, results from different scenarios concerning the first wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations have been considered for each country. Numerical simulations show that a careful strategy of progressive relaxation of containment measures, such as that adopted by some governments, may be able to keep the epidemic under control by restarting various productive activities.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021355?viewType=HTMLepidemic modellinguncertainty quantificationsocial structureoptimal controlnon-pharmaceutical interventionscovid-19 |
| spellingShingle | Giacomo Albi Lorenzo Pareschi Mattia Zanella Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering epidemic modelling uncertainty quantification social structure optimal control non-pharmaceutical interventions covid-19 |
| title | Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty |
| title_full | Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty |
| title_short | Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty |
| title_sort | modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio economic containment with uncertainty |
| topic | epidemic modelling uncertainty quantification social structure optimal control non-pharmaceutical interventions covid-19 |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021355?viewType=HTML |
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