Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy
<p>Cold and snowy spells are compound extreme events with the potential to cause high socioeconomic impacts. Gaining insight into their dynamics in climate change scenarios could help anticipating the need for adaptation efforts. We focus on winter cold and snowy spells over Italy, reconstruct...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/961/2022/esd-13-961-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818553879754702848 |
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| author | M. D'Errico F. Pons P. Yiou S. Tao C. Nardini F. Lunkeit D. Faranda D. Faranda D. Faranda |
| author_facet | M. D'Errico F. Pons P. Yiou S. Tao C. Nardini F. Lunkeit D. Faranda D. Faranda D. Faranda |
| author_sort | M. D'Errico |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Cold and snowy spells are compound extreme events with the potential to cause high socioeconomic impacts. Gaining insight into their dynamics in climate change scenarios could help anticipating the need for adaptation efforts. We focus on winter cold and snowy spells over Italy, reconstructing 32 major events in the past 60 years from documentary sources. Despite warmer winter temperatures, very recent cold spells have been associated with abundant and sometimes exceptional snowfall.
Our goal is to analyse the dynamical weather patterns associated with these events and understand whether those patterns would be more or less recurrent in different emission scenarios using an intermediate-complexity model (the Planet Simulator, PlaSim). Our results, obtained by considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 end-of-century equivalent <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations, suggest that the likelihood of synoptic configurations analogous to those leading to extreme cold spells would grow substantially under increased emissions.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:31:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1494ae38bc304bdfaf66bf8dc4f5d58a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:31:35Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-1494ae38bc304bdfaf66bf8dc4f5d58a2022-12-22T00:28:49ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872022-06-011396199210.5194/esd-13-961-2022Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over ItalyM. D'Errico0F. Pons1P. Yiou2S. Tao3C. Nardini4F. Lunkeit5D. Faranda6D. Faranda7D. Faranda8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, FranceService de Physique de l'État Condensé, CNRS UMR 3680, CEA-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceMeteorological Institute, CEN, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, FranceLondon Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, W6 8RH, UKLMD/IPSL, Ecole Normale Superieure, PSL research University, Paris, France<p>Cold and snowy spells are compound extreme events with the potential to cause high socioeconomic impacts. Gaining insight into their dynamics in climate change scenarios could help anticipating the need for adaptation efforts. We focus on winter cold and snowy spells over Italy, reconstructing 32 major events in the past 60 years from documentary sources. Despite warmer winter temperatures, very recent cold spells have been associated with abundant and sometimes exceptional snowfall. Our goal is to analyse the dynamical weather patterns associated with these events and understand whether those patterns would be more or less recurrent in different emission scenarios using an intermediate-complexity model (the Planet Simulator, PlaSim). Our results, obtained by considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 end-of-century equivalent <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations, suggest that the likelihood of synoptic configurations analogous to those leading to extreme cold spells would grow substantially under increased emissions.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/961/2022/esd-13-961-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. D'Errico F. Pons P. Yiou S. Tao C. Nardini F. Lunkeit D. Faranda D. Faranda D. Faranda Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy |
| title_full | Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy |
| title_fullStr | Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy |
| title_short | Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy |
| title_sort | present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over italy |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/961/2022/esd-13-961-2022.pdf |
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