Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland
Abstract Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to m...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-32343-8 |
| _version_ | 1797850078469160960 |
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| author | Mehran Mahdian Majid Hosseinzadeh Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi Zohreh Chalipa Majid Delavar Ming Guo Soroush Abolfathi Roohollah Noori |
| author_facet | Mehran Mahdian Majid Hosseinzadeh Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi Zohreh Chalipa Majid Delavar Ming Guo Soroush Abolfathi Roohollah Noori |
| author_sort | Mehran Mahdian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevents large sediment load and high streamflow input to the AWW. Under the combined effects of the climate and LULC changes, by 2100, the projected total sediment input to the wetland will reach 22.66, 20.83, and 19.93 million tons under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results highlight that without any robust environmental interventions, the large sediment inputs will significantly degrade the Anzali wetland ecosystem and partly-fill the wetland basin, resulting in resigning the wetland from the Montreux record list and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T18:55:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-14973d9ee2924f0ebfa959d44e1716a1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T18:55:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-14973d9ee2924f0ebfa959d44e1716a12023-04-09T11:12:56ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-04-0113111810.1038/s41598-023-32343-8Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetlandMehran Mahdian0Majid Hosseinzadeh1Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi2Zohreh Chalipa3Majid Delavar4Ming Guo5Soroush Abolfathi6Roohollah Noori7School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and TechnologySchool of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and TechnologySchool of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and TechnologySchool of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares UniversitySchool of Engineering, University of WarwickSchool of Engineering, University of WarwickGraduate Faculty of Environment, University of TehranAbstract Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevents large sediment load and high streamflow input to the AWW. Under the combined effects of the climate and LULC changes, by 2100, the projected total sediment input to the wetland will reach 22.66, 20.83, and 19.93 million tons under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results highlight that without any robust environmental interventions, the large sediment inputs will significantly degrade the Anzali wetland ecosystem and partly-fill the wetland basin, resulting in resigning the wetland from the Montreux record list and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-32343-8 |
| spellingShingle | Mehran Mahdian Majid Hosseinzadeh Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi Zohreh Chalipa Majid Delavar Ming Guo Soroush Abolfathi Roohollah Noori Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland Scientific Reports |
| title | Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland |
| title_full | Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland |
| title_fullStr | Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland |
| title_short | Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland |
| title_sort | modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands case study of the anzali wetland |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-32343-8 |
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