Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production
Abstract Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10670-6 |
| _version_ | 1811338787350904832 |
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| author | Z. Pinke B. Decsi A. Jámbor M. K. Kardos Z. Kern Z. Kozma T. Ács |
| author_facet | Z. Pinke B. Decsi A. Jámbor M. K. Kardos Z. Kern Z. Kozma T. Ács |
| author_sort | Z. Pinke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend prevailing over the past decades in the summer and winter seasons has been accompanied by a South to North shift in the harvested areas. The combination of these two processes has meant that the north-eastern sector of the European grain chessboard has emerged as the main beneficiary. There, the relatively low sensitivity of cereals to climatic change plus high economic growth rates have been accompanied by the most dynamic increases in cereal yields on the continent. As a result, a modern version of the 3000 year-old grain distribution system of the Ancient World is being restored before our eyes. One noteworthy finding is that increasing January–March temperatures have had a significant positive impact on wheat yields from Northern to South-Eastern Europe, and this is, at least in part, compensating for the negative impact of summer warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:15:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-14d11d2e0f0d441781829b8fc20d1dee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:15:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-14d11d2e0f0d441781829b8fc20d1dee2022-12-22T02:35:41ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-05-0112111610.1038/s41598-022-10670-6Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain productionZ. Pinke0B. Decsi1A. Jámbor2M. K. Kardos3Z. Kern4Z. Kozma5T. Ács6Department of Physical Geography, Eötvös Loránd UniversityDepartment of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and EconomicsDepartment of Agribusiness, Corvinus University of BudapestDepartment of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and EconomicsResearch Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Institute for Geological and Geochemical ResearchDepartment of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and EconomicsDepartment of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and EconomicsAbstract Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend prevailing over the past decades in the summer and winter seasons has been accompanied by a South to North shift in the harvested areas. The combination of these two processes has meant that the north-eastern sector of the European grain chessboard has emerged as the main beneficiary. There, the relatively low sensitivity of cereals to climatic change plus high economic growth rates have been accompanied by the most dynamic increases in cereal yields on the continent. As a result, a modern version of the 3000 year-old grain distribution system of the Ancient World is being restored before our eyes. One noteworthy finding is that increasing January–March temperatures have had a significant positive impact on wheat yields from Northern to South-Eastern Europe, and this is, at least in part, compensating for the negative impact of summer warming.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10670-6 |
| spellingShingle | Z. Pinke B. Decsi A. Jámbor M. K. Kardos Z. Kern Z. Kozma T. Ács Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production Scientific Reports |
| title | Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production |
| title_full | Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production |
| title_short | Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production |
| title_sort | climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in european grain production |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10670-6 |
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